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To: BobL
Not sure this is possible to compare statistically.

People just don't realize how rare commercial crashes are.

Since 1950 there have only been roughly 1000, or about 20 per year. That is of course for the whole world, and rates in the third world are a big multiple of those here. Crashes are so rare that terrorism is one of the major causes.

In most recent years we don't have a US crash, and sometimes we go several years between them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft

For purposes of discussion, let's allow for six crashes per decade.

There are upwards of 10M US flights per year, or 100M per decade.

Comparing the mean missing a flight from 100M completed flights to those from six crashes cannot statistically be computed, I suspect. I'm not a statistician, but work around statistics enough to have a "feel" for them.

This is, BTW, ignoring the obvious fact that crashes are often associated with bad weather, which may also have a major impact on number of people missing a flight, because they can't get to the airport on time or because their connection gets in late, etc.

IOW, any such statistic may not have actual statistical validity, and even if it does, there are alternative explanations other than the survivors having a "feeling" that leads them to intentionally miss the flight.

33 posted on 08/19/2012 6:47:23 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: Sherman Logan

I won’t argue that, maybe the stats aren’t there. I just don’t like people beating up on Karto.


34 posted on 08/19/2012 6:49:26 AM PDT by BobL (If you're afraid of guns, get yourself a wife that isn't)
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