[SuziQ]

While I do hear you on the Bradley effect there were many of us here thinking that it would apply in 2008 regarding the polls. however, the polls were right and McCain lost.

The biggest difference this time is that in 2008, Obama was an unknown quantity, so a vote for him was a novel thing to do, and many voters said to themselves, "it can't be any worse than what we have now."

In 2012, we know him all too well, and it is MUCH worse than it was before he was elected. So some of those folks who may be SAYING they'll vote for him again, have no intention of actually doing so.

[Alas Babylon!]

Very astute analysis!

2012 is not going to be like 2008! I’ve been mulling over the idea that 2012 will be like the elections of 1996 or 2004, where in both cases the incmbent won; but neither year had such horrific economic issues.

No, I see 1980 all over again.