Skip to comments.Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical "Jobs"
Posted on 09/08/2012 10:42:12 PM PDT by RC one
Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs "added", 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. Doesn't matter - the flashing red headline is good enough for the algos.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
Old story you know,right? August 3rd on July’s numbers.
Not that old and still relevant I think.
Four kinds: lies, damn lies, statistics and things Democrats say.
A hyperlink in the story takes you to an updated data page.
The Bureau of LABOR Statistics produces this series of data. It is not inconceivable that employees of this agency would have biases which favor that a Democrat president and these biases could well unknowingly creep into their work product.
I’m not an expert in reading this type of data but 133245 - 132868 = 377. I would think the 377K includes the 52K.
Also the total jobs are clearly in thousands (133,245,000 and 132,868,000). The jobs added are in raw numbers: 163,000 and 133,082.
Now 377 does not equal 52 plus 163. Where does the other 162 come from?
We need actual employment trends, not the bullcrap smoke and mirrors.
You’re probably better off doing your own analysis of the current data projected against the data of the last 6-8 years.
I’ve looked at bls.gov and not seen these numbers.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm is what I think I’m supposed to be looking at.
The numbers I see are 142,220,000 for July and 142,101,000 for August....not the numbers cited in the story. Also it does not appear that BLS breaks out birth/death adjustments. It’s possible I’m looking in the wrong place, though.
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