Posted on 09/21/2012 11:35:02 AM PDT by Signalman
One thing, though, that we SHOULD all remember. The 2004 day of election exist polls were absolutely, unquestionably falsified in order to give the impression of a Kerry victory...with the hopes of propelling Kerry to victory.
So we do in fact know that polls (in this case exist polls) are SOMETIMES falsified and deliberately distorted. Problem is, though, that in 2008...as you correctly note...the polls were correct on the outcome and the good ones were correct on teh margin (ie, Rasmussen).
A final point: most of the polls did in fact underestimate what McCain finally got. So, some of the pre-election day analysis that said McCain’s vote was underreported turned out to be correct...just not correct enough.
So what’s the action item? I suppose my take away, personally, is simply to watch Rasmussen, which I do.
And by Rasmussen, Romney has NOT won as of today.
Hopefully next week will bring positive movement.
The RCP average was very close to the actual result.
Absent other evidence, I believe the best turnout model is somewhere between the 2004 presidential and the 2010 midterm. The electorate won’t have the GOP dominance of 2010 since it is a presidential year, but we should exceed the GOP percentage of 2004.
Relying on 2008 is a joke.
if they turn out is closer to what happened in2010 (and WE CONTROL THAT) then Morris is correct
“Absent other evidence, I believe the best turnout model is somewhere between the 2004 presidential and the 2010 midterm. The electorate won’t have the GOP dominance of 2010 since it is a presidential year, but we should exceed the GOP percentage of 2004.
Relying on 2008 is a joke.”
I disagree. Why shouldn’t turnout be at 2010 levels or more for the republicans? I was mad as hell in 2010, and couldn’t wait to vote. Even though Zero was not on the ballot, I was part of the wave that helped overturn the House.
I thought I was fired up in 2010, but that was nothing to the rage I feel against Zero and his regime now. We have had F&F, Obamacare passed, presidential decrees getting rid of work requirements for welfare, no added security at our embassies on Sept. 11, blaming it all on a video, and Zero not bothering to attend security briefings or meet with Bibi but being able to fit Letterman, Jayzee, and Beyonce into his schedule.... I know that there is a wave of rage even bigger than what was felt in 2010.
And if we turn out as we did in 2010, it’s all over for Zero. The lame-streams know this, and they are shamelessly doing everything in their power to make republicans think it is already over for Romney with these crap polls that over-sample Dims.
I dont give a DAMN about what the MSM, the misguided celebrities, or the weighted polls say I believe the American spirit will prevail
Hell yes, I lie all the time.
I've been polled many times this year and when it is an automated phone poll {press 1 for this and 2 for that} I am a female, black or latino, young 18-28, registered demonRAT, undecided or voting for Romney or obama but I never tell the truth.
Piss in the pollsters breakfast cereal.
When pretty much ALL the polls are going against you, you're losing. There are 9 polls in the RCP average today, Romney is losing 8 of them and tied in 1.
Dick Morris is simply telling conservatives what they want to hear. Right now a positive message is probably the best thing for us, but I wouldn't put any stock in any prediction Dick Morris makes. He owes O'Reilly like a dozen steak dinners for all the times he's been wrong just between those two.
This election should have been a referendum on the incumbent, instead it's boiling down to a choice. "Referendum" gave us our best chance to win. "Choice" means voters pick who they personally like better - unfortunately they really, really still want to like Obama.
Yeah, I’m thinking I recently heard Jim Geraghty say that the undecided vote broke 50/50 in 2004.
I agree with Morris's conclusion, but "Under State.?"
Dick, it's one word -- "understate." I know, it's tough running a one-man show, but hire an editor part-time.
I am with you on that one....
Under which State?
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