Was there a similiar bump last year in sept? or is there a history of such bumps in sept?
If you look up the Federal Emergency Unemployment Extension you'll see that it ends around Jan 14th. Those who are on this program would have to take whatever they can get at this point.
Anybody who runs out of regular Unemployment now and goes onto this Federal Emergency Unemployment will only be able to collect until the above mentioned date (it's not a situation where if they start it now they get the 99 weeks or whatever amount of weeks the emergency aid offered. It goes only to Jan 14 whether you go on Emergency UE now, or back in august or during the Christmas week). I would also take this into consideration.
I remember in 2000 the Democrats were making an excuse when the recession started it was in anticipation of Bush becoming President. So they have already admitted this type of economic movement is a possibility.
It is harvest time around here. Lots of people work for a couple of weeks when the farmers are digging spuds. And then those jobs are gone. I suppose if you are collecting unemployment and do that you should report you are “working”.
According to the BLS website, 529,000 of the household employeed are part time "due to economic reasons" which means they would prefer being full time. The margin of error for the household number is +/- 436,000 which makes it a very unreliable statistic.
54% of the 124,000 are seasonal employees making < $15/hr.
Lots of temporary political campaign jobs and all those Halloween costume stores. Nation wide, the Halloween stores employ 30,000 to 40,000 temp jobs.
The biggest reason to question these numbers is that they came from the 0bama regime and the timing is VERY SUSPECT!
They've been able to cook the books by using a very soft household survey component for part-time jobs; that's all. Your reasoning is faulty; the numbers are supposed to be seasonally adjusted, and, if anything September is a month of declining jobs as students and other seasonal workers head out of the job market.
Economists predicted there would be between 110-120,000 net new jobs in September, and because the economy must create roughly 205,000 new jobs per month to move the UE number down -0.1, the UE number would likely remain unchanged or increase to 8.2 if we had that number of new jobs. The BLS itself projected 115,000. The actual number was 114,000. The Underemployment number remained unchanged at 14.7%. The survey of employers going into the fourth quarter says most have not hired new workers in the past year, will not hire workers in the next quarter, and if anything intend to let people go. Manufacturing has had its worst two consecutive months since 0bama took office.
Part of the Fed's rationale for QE3 was that the jobs numbers were not where they needed to be, and they anticipated keeping interest rates steady (low) through mid-2015 and doing more easing to produce jobs. What has changed since the Fed QE3 announcement? Nothing except what happened on Wednesday Night.
These numbers cannot possibly be real and everyone knows it.