Not sure what you're seeing in CD's, but the above curve is the one to look at.
We are in uncharted waters, the only thing I know is eventually interest rate must skyrocket so I would not be in any bond instrument thats not inflation protected (TIPS).
With the fed printing debt, M3 velocity at near 0. Realize the fed is being paid about 1%/tr to hold excess reserves for banks, think about that a negative interest rate. People are so worried about the global economic situation that its not the return on investment but the return of investment.
I would say we will likely double dip, 100% if bathhouse barry is reelected, 50-50% for willard. China is likely already in ressesion. Look at the dry bulk tonnage rates and the decrease of china’s exports.
I think the yeild curve is basically saying it has no idea what the hell is going on because of the manipulation by various central bank, thus distorting the feedback mechanisms.
I would plan for massive inflation unless we’ve passed the tipping point and the only way out is the deflationary shock of the 1920 depression.
used to be that an inverted yield curve was more of a leading indicator that the recession was nearing an end.
used to be the best strategy during an inversion was to extend your maturities, and ride the yield curve down as it normalized (back to short rates lower than long rates).
inverted yield curves never really lasted too long 90 days to a year or so in more most cases cases.
now with as much supply as the fed is pumping into the bills, an inverter yield curve may be today’s “normal” yield curve?
could be just massive supply in the short end and no inflation in the long end will keep it inverted?
The yield curve is not currently inverted. If you have to go out 60 mos. that means rates are higher for terms further into the future, hence the lack of inversion. The ING rate for that particular product is a marketing tool.