Posted on 10/24/2012 8:01:41 PM PDT by CatOwner
Has Romney ever been in the lead in any poll in Ohio? While there are other scenarios for Romney to get to 270 EVs, the fact that he isn't leading in Ohio is disconcerting. Just one (fair) poll showing Romney with a 2-3 point lead in Ohio. Maybe Obama's ground game is too strong in Ohio?
You wish... :)
I have lots of family in OHIO and they are all changing this time to Romney. I could not convince them last time so they all went with Zero their hero.
Did you make posts like this in 2008 or 2010? You are debbie downer.
Everything is trending Romney, but it will still come down to the swing states. I’m not counting my chickens till the fat lady sings.
Since 10/20, RCP avg of Ohio has Obama’s lead dropping .4. In that time the D advantage has gone from D+5.5 to D+6.6. More Ds, but slips.
This time, I have no idea. But those saying it will be a Romney landslide are delusional. I don't care if it is 270-268 Romney. Find a way to win, damn it.
Poll ping question.
Margin of errors = dead heat.
Undecideds break for challenger about 3-1 usually. Very close. Momentum on Mitt’s side.
Turnout was huge in 08 for Obama. Not this time. Toss up but looking good.
I am guessing you saw Brit Hume on Greta tonight. He indicated that Romney hasn’t had a lead in any poll “that I am aware of” in the state of Ohio. I am concerned too but trying to stay positive....its one of these issues that’s not in my hands.... just going to put this one is God’s hands and pray for the best outcome. That being said, the fact that Ohio has a history that no Republican has won without Ohio means its due for that to change... and I think that change would be good for politics that Romney wins thru some other method.... I am tired of hearing how important Ohio is....I love the state ... truly but I am sick of the focus....every state matters to me.
Three of those polls have it tied and only one has Obama at 50%. His average is 47.9%; being that for below 50% is very bad news for an incumbent.
I have given up trying to do the math state by state, and instead have resorted to believing my Higher Power will allow it to happen on way or another. I always go back to remembering the turnout here in Phoenix on Chick Fil A day. All we could talk about while waiting in line was how we had to remove that buffoonish clown in our White House and all his support of social issues that NONE of us believed in. I think when you throw in the economy and foreign affairs I am praying he will be removed. Also I think back to Carter’s position in the polls a few months before Reagan’s 42 state sweep (or whatever the number was).
The current polls show Romney killing it with Indies and with an assumed 2008 turnout model. So far, knock on wood, the turn out model is probably going to be closer to 2010.
Obama won Indies in OH by 8 in 2008, Romney leads by 8 or a 16 point turn around.
Plus historically, Dems HAVE UNDERPERFORMED IN OH RELATIVE TO THEIR NATIONAL VOTE PERCENTAGE. It was no different in 1980, 1996 or 2008. If Romney is winning the National vote, add 1.5% to his lead in OH.
Let’s face it Ohio is a potential problem. You have auto workers in Ohio and while Obama’s auto bailout was irresponsible, it is the workers who got their sweetheart contracts protected. Also, the early voting started before Romney surged.
It IS closer than 2008 but that doesn’t mean it’s a win. And if Romney doesn’t win Ohio, will he win bluer states like PA or MICH?
According to Dick Morris, Romney will win Ohio and PA, Michigan and maybe even Minnesota.
I’d like to think the Romney tidal wave will was over Ohio, but it might not. That’s just reality.
It’s beyond me how people could reelect Obama but duh, in Ohio he bought them off. That’s how.
Obama 51.5%, McCain 47.9% in 2008.
Pretty much every OH poll has a D+ sample greater than 2008. (wasn’t CNN/Time today D+9) I just don’t see that happening this time. All the early/absentee vote totals are much improved for Romney over Obama.
OH has been the big one. It’s the one I have worried about for a couple years. Obama has come to OH more times than any other state, BEFORE the election cycle started. They knew that OH would be political ground zero.
Regardless of the actual top line of any poll in the last 3 weeks, they have all moved in Romney’s direction. Romney is winning independents in every national and state poll by double digits. That in and of itself, translates to an Indy swing of 20-25 points from 2008 (and indy’s make up about 30% of the total vote).
The Romney campaign seems to be hitting on all cylinders at the right time. Obama seems to be doing gimmicks and talking about petty issues. Ryan today in Cleveland gave a great high level poverty speech. Romney is giving an economic policy speech in Iowa Friday.
Have we forgotten the voter intensity in 2010? Was that a rebellion against democrats in general or a mid term referendum on Obama? And are those 2010 voters any less upset, any less intense than 2 years ago? I think not.
For all the worriers.... which campaign would you rather have right now???? Romney or Obama....
Just remember 2010...
There’s nothing to worry about when it comes to Ohio modulo DemonRAT corruption. The polls won’t reflect the actual outcome where it counts: the ballot box. What’s happening in Ohio polling in terms of Obama’s performance there is merely a manifestation of the Bradley Effect. White guilt looms large in the Buckeye State but in the privacy of the voting booth, that will vanish.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.