#2 is real. I am on the ground in Warren county, and I am telling you there is nowhere near the voter enthusiasm for the GOP there was in 2004 and 2008. Those who say unprecedented enthusiasm is everywhere are smoking crack. Average joes are not impressed with either of these guys. And Ryan does not have anywhere the reach and charisma of Palin to get to the working class voter.
Now there is also nowhere near the enthusiasm for Obama either, and GOP voters are more habitual voters, Romney might be OK.
But polls are polls, and the lesson is that they are not often wrong. Sometimes yes, but not often. And the polls are telling us that Romney will underperform the national average in OH.
So prepare yourself for four more years of Obama, a solidly GOP house and a split almost down the middle senate.
The GOP almost NEVER underperforms the national polls in Ohio. There’s more than one poll that has Mitt leading Ohio.