Posted on 11/02/2012 6:14:29 PM PDT by Kolath
If you want to understand why voters no longer trust pollsters, look no further than the latest CNN poll of Ohio voters, showing President Barack Obama with a 50%-47% lead over Gov. Mitt Romney--a result that is within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error, but which suggests a slight Obama lead. The internal numbers reveal that Romney is leading among independents by 2%, and winning Election Day voters by a staggering 13%.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
The article doesn’t mention how big Obama’s lead is among early/absentee voters. That would give us a better idea of the ground Romney will need to make up on Tuesday. Still, +13 on election day is great.
The info I’m seeing suggests that early voting was just under 30% of the total vote in Ohio in 2008, and is on track to be similar this year. That tells me that Obama would need an astronomical (and basically impossible) early vote advantage to make up for a 13-point split on election day.
I feel the earth move, under my feet. Imagine....Romney 57...0bama 43, overall. Heads will explode, and roll, Tuesday Night. Then, the Benghazi, & Fast & Furious Military Tribunals in early ‘13. This monster needs to be made an example of what Jefferson, Franklin & the boys warned us of.
ok, he wins the early vote, wins independents and wins election day voters and its still close??
Interesting..
Gallup and Pew both agree Romney is actually up with early voters nationwide, and CNN says Romney has a huge election day lead..
So obviously CNN is giving Obama a falsely high early voting lead, which they don’t even report.
The low-down on the Keystone State:
Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County’s population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.
So assume:
(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).
(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush ‘04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)
Then:
Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.
Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/jsavqc
Early voters nation-wide, but does anybody have reliable Ohio early vote numbers. From what I hear Obama has a sizable lead there, but the margin is much less than 08. So, the question is: how big is Obama’s early vote lead in Ohio, if, in fact, he does have a lead and that’s just not propaganda also like everything else the media is saying.
My wife said if Romney wins she doesn’t want to watch Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS or NBC. She wants to watch msnbc and all the heads exploding.
We KNOW no republicans will vote for Romney. Surely there are some who identify themselves as democrats who will vote against obama.
I'm guessing there's a typo in here someplace.
It will be an epic fail moment.
Total early toes in OH down by over 200,000 and R turnout for early considerably higher than 08.
Make that the early VOTES.
I’m a little leery about Philadelphia. They have a big Democratic political machine headed by Ed Rendell. You can bet there will be some shenanigans going on there. Watch them be late bringing out their voting tallies after every other county or city has reported.
So, I take two things, at least, out of your analysis. Pardon me, as I am sure these are the two points you have been trying to make. It’s just that it is now starting to click in my slow brain. If all these polls showing the high Dem sample AND the extraordinarily high lead for Obama among people who have already voted but leaving Romney with a huge election day lead and couple that with the fact that the percentage size of those already voted in the poll, with what we actually KNOW about the total number and D/R split of the absentee and early vote (it is well off the 2008 pace overall and for Dems). Then two things seem to be matter of fact conclusions: [1] The too high Dem sample is by default wrong, AND [2] The poll itself is saying that the votes are definitely NOT there for Obama among election day voters percentage wise or numerically.
Bingo. This is what we’ve been seeing in the absentees for months. Ds down too much to make up for it on Election Day.
Only concern is R +2 with Indy’s that is low that could be issue, hopefully not but that isn’t a good number for the indy vote.
a Chris Mathews style “tingle down your leg”?
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