I wont go as far as you go, MS has done some very significant work on the OS since 1995, but a lot of what they have done are things behind the scenes that the typical user won’t notice much of a difference.
What I am saying is they are just no longer a tech driver... Microsoft hasn’t LEAD in well over 2 decades, its followed. MS’s model was never one of leading really.. much of the “innovation” MS is credited for are ME TOO..
They have a business model that is far too antiquated to EVER be a driving force in TECH ever again. Effectively their model is largely find something someone else is already doing and relatively successful at and either buy them out or copy it. Now back in the ancient days of technology, mid 90s and before, this model was viable. MS has market share and could push its version, no matter how crappy it was to an installed base of users... Technology cycles were often multi year things. So, you could revision yourself up to tolerable or acceptable over time...
That’s not how it is today, at least not in many areas of technology. I remember when the NCSA Browser/Internet came online and then Netscape and MS just wrote the internet off... then they realized their mistake and came up with their own crap browser... they iterated and pushed it into the enterprise and eventually took the top spot... but it took them years to do it.
Now look at them since... tHey are STILL trying that same business model.. but the problem is the cycles are far far shorter... They can’t “ME TOO” fast enough to play this game, by the time they get in, the markets are too mature and products too good to deal with their crap. (Zune anyone??) .NET??? 18 years later its still nothing but playing catch up with JAVA (Though few .NET developers know or even understand that .NET was nothing more than MS’s “me too” to Java.
The last major undertaking at least in consumer retail that MS has pulled that has been remotely successful was the XBOX and it burned BILLIONS in losses on first gen to get that foothold and in second gen finally showed profit and will likely do fine in the 3rd gen.. but that’s an industry with 6-7 year cycles... Most technology, particularly consumer technology is on 1 year cycles or less... MS can’t play me too, if it wants to be relevant... it can’t force its will into enterprise. 20 years ago MS could have come out with a phone or tablet and whether it was the best or not wouldn’t have mattered... now, thanks to the opening up of the stack from a data and software perspective, they can’t do that, they have to compete directly with the competition and beat established players at their own games and that’s nearly impossible to do unless you yourself are committed to DRIVING NEW TECHNOLOGY... and MS isn’t.
I am not saying they don’t do R&D or that there aren’t really smart people there.. there are. Its just innovation cannot be fostered in an organization that is being managed by bean counters.. The model that had served them will doesn’t work today, and Ballmer’s management has ensured that the passion for technology that drives most innovation will never be fostered within their walls.
They will continue to exist, they will continue to make money, but the days of MS being a driving force in technology are long long gone. Without a change from the top down, they will never return.