Gotta disagree with your Avon prediction - women will always shell out to fell good and look good - just a reality.
I remember reading that during the great depression, cosmetics suffered far less than others - interesting no?!
The trouble with Avon is less the economy at large than that it is so mismanaged that it is falling apart. As it is put in business journals, they keep starting brush fires, then putting them out, but in the process neglecting their business.
Likely they will be divvied up between other cosmetics companies, where competition is fierce.