[Pontiac]

"We hypothesized that the distribution of this crime was not random, but that it moved in a process similar to an infectious disease, with firearms and gangs operating as the infectious agents,"

I don’t think firearms would be a suitable vector for homicide.

ADC welfare payments might be a better predictor.

"We looked at homicide as an infectious disease," Zeoli said in an interview. "To spread, an infectious disease needs three things: a source of the infection; a mode of transmission; and we need a susceptible population."

Considering that homicide occurs more frequently in minority neighborhoods there might be something there to suggest susceptibility.

[Cyber Liberty]

ADC welfare payments might be a better predictor.

Yup. Look for the welfare recipients, and you'll find the fatherless children. There you will find the crucible of sociopaths. How many children of single *fathers* will you find killing other children?

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

"We hypothesized that the distribution of this crime was not random, but that it moved in a process similar to an infectious disease, with firearms and gangs operating as the infectious agents,"

I don’t think firearms would be a suitable vector for homicide.

Considering the large ratio between the number of guns to the number of murders, guns might better be considered a symptom of crime, rather than a vector of it.

Just as a high white blood cell count is indicative of infection . . .

Studying homicide via a broad public health lens, Zeoli added, also allowed researchers to identify positive outliers: "We actually had some areas within Newark that were resistant to homicide, despite being surrounded by areas with high homicide rates. So we need to investigate why those little islands exist."

First thing to look at might be the amount of surveillance against crime, and the kind/number of armed men (whether police officers or others) who can be expected to respond to crime in the area.