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Ray Kurzweil is a futurist, but AI singularity is probably unavoidable.

I agree - what I question is Kurzweil's time-frame, and his attempt to apply Moore's Law to any field in which computers can be involved. The field of artificial intelligence is a good example - I remember the AI classes I took back in college in the early '90s, and the state of the art simply doesn't seem to have advanced very much since then; there's certainly been no exponential growth.

This is even more true for the biomedical and nanotechnology advances that will be needed for humans to achieve the sort of longevity that Kurzweil talks about. Aside from whether Moore's Law is even applicable to these fields, Kurzweil overlooks all of the economic, political and social obstacles. The US, Europe and Japan are risk-averse nanny states in which bio-engineering and medical innovation are smothered by regulations and trial lawyers. The FDA doesn't even acknowledge aging as a medical issue in need of treatment or cures. Companies know this, and make their research funding decisions accordingly.

There's no question in my mind that many or most of Kurzweil's projections will inevitably happen (and I can only admire not only his genius but his courage in stating his views), but they'll happen in fits and starts, with more than a few regressions.

Very true. The future is full of twists and turns that will happen but no one will predict. Will the nature of patents mean that India and China will take a lead on the issue? Do we even have an idea what a self evolving AI is? What can be the timeline be like and what will be the identifiable milestones? That’s for good science fiction writers. Science historians will have another take.