[PapaBear3625]

The big thing is that the Livingston and Penn paper came out in June 2008. Close to five years later, their predictions look a lot more accurate than the models that NASA and NOAA/SWPC are using.

There's also this graph of solar cycle variations

Notice that in solar cycles 21 and 22, the solar flare index was closely in sync with the other indicators, but in solar cycle 23 (1995-2009) started diverging. This might be connected to what Livingston and Penn are talking about.

If the solar trend continues down into 2013, and the winter of 2012-14 is unusually cold, it may be time to start worrying.

[Star Traveler]

Too bad we don’t have a “Like” button here ... :-)