The Manhattan Project began in 1942. They had no idea how long it would take them to develop the bomb, or how long the war would last. Their fear was the the Nazis would develop it first, and since the Pacific Theater was second in priority to the ETO in everything, I don't see how you've reached that certainty. Particularly in light of Germany's development of the V2 and ME-262 - had Germany still been fighting, their nazi-a$$es would have been lit up.
“Particularly in light of Germany’s development of the V2 and ME-262 - had Germany still been fighting, their nazi-a$$es would have been lit up.”
I just don’t see it, sorry. America had a solid idea as to how long the war would last after the success of Overlord. Bradley and the American R+D and supply chain was set up to use what they got at Overlord and stay with it to the end of the war.
Again, the cutoff for the effectiveness of a nuclear weapon in Europe was Overlord. If it wasn’t ready by then - the war would be over before it had a chance to come to bear.
Sure - the R+D would continue at that point of the war as a hedge, but at least in a logistics and operation sense, America believed that Overlord would be decisive at ending the war in their favor.
Development of the bomb in ‘45 makes perfect sense to me given Truman’s understanding of the war. He believed and invasion would be necessary after the 3 month battle of Okinawa and the difficulty the American forces had in taking the Island. If Okinawa was difficult, than Japan would be even harder. It all fits together. Okinawa didn’t end until June - Trinity was in July and the atomic bombing of Japan a month later.
“Manhattan Project”, by RUSH
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5g8lArr2Js
Imagine a time when it all began
In the dying days of a war
A weapon - that would settle the score
Whoever found it first
Would be sure to do their worst -
They always had before...
The big bang - took and shook the world
Shot down the rising sun
the end was begun - it would hit everyone
When the chain reaction was done
The big shots - try to hold it back
Fools try to wish it away
The hopeful depend on a world without end
Whatever the hopeless may say....