“That third option would not have gotten Japan to the surrender table on August 15, 1945, if ever”
True, it would have taken longer. No question there. How long, I think is the interesting question? Can you run a modern society with no oil? LeMay took out the refineries in May, and Japan had no way to get more, let alone use what they possessed. I do not believe they would have made it through the winter.
Who is “they”?
The Japanese leadership couldn’t make it through the winter?
The people were already suffering horrifically and had been for a long time forced to “sacrifice” for the war effort. It wouldn’t matter if they weren’t going to make it, a lot of them already didn’t.
Ever see “Grave of the Fireflies”? I’d recommend the cartoon version, but its still too sad.