Posted on 08/15/2013 8:05:43 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Sunspot count is virtually unchanged from last month :
It seems possible that we’ve seen the double peak, and it will be downhill after this.
A similar status quo in radio flux – little change from last month.
The Ap magnetic index dropped 4 units from last month, suggesting a slowing in the solar dynamo.
On August 1st, solar scientist David Hathaway updated his prediction page but the text is identical to last month – no change in the forecast.
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
About the only significant even in the last month is that the solar polar fields have begun their reversal, indicating we are at “solar max”, which seems like a misnomer given the low activity observed at the moment. That’s why I think we may have seen the “double peak” and it is downhill from here.
Solar Polar Fields – Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present
Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at sourceWatch the progress on the WUWT solar reference page
Low sunspots means less ionization of the D, E, F1 and F2 ionization belts around the earth...resulting in poor or non existant long distance radio communication.
Seems to me this is good timing for the Obamacons....since radio communication between patriots is cut off.
For more details see AARL General Ham Radio license manual. ARRL at www.arrl.org
Global Warming on Free Republic
Academecian Habibullo Abdussamatov
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html
http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/apr/article/download/14754/10140
Sunspots inflate the solar magnetic bubble reducing the cosmic ray tendency to increase cloud cover.
UV radiation emissions fall greatly with sunspot absence.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682610001185
Academecian Habibullo Abdussamatov
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html
http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/apr/article/download/14754/10140
Sunspots inflate the solar magnetic bubble reducing the cosmic ray tendency to increase cloud cover.
UV radiation emissions fall greatly with sunspot absence.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682610001185
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.