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But don’t forget, like Roddenberry and others, knowing the past is one thing but predicting the future another.

Many marvel about the communicators and the fact we now have cell phones. Uh, when Star Trek came out I was 8 years old and had pretty good walkie talkies. Seemed normal to me they’d have better ones.

But things like warp drive and matter beamings aren’t going to happen by 2300. Don’t see any science on warp bubbles much and that is why the ship can travel at those speeds, not because of the propulsion engines. And it will take some really sophisticated computers before there is matter transfer.

But again, old science fiction rethought (for Roddenberry it was a budget issue - cost less that constant shuttle effects): Remember the original “The Fly” with Vincent Price?

Also, a lot of what we now think is new is really just making the old better. You’re railroad example is a real change, as was flight. Roads, canals, ships on oceans...all got better but have been around for millenium. Even plumbing, water systems, sewer systems, or the toilet...all old stuff.

Great post ckilmer. Love this stuff.

What we do know is that not only is that not only is technology is changing but the rate of change is accelerating.

Further, there have been some pretty disruptive technologies in the past—that came along and just drew a ledger line on all things that came before and afterwards.

Consider in the last 5 years we’ve been hit by two massive technological changes. The first is the shift to cell phone computers world wide. The amount of computing power on people’s cell phones is about what a laptop had in 2005. This is all over the world.

The second great technological revolution is what’s happening the oil patch to gas and oil. What’s happening there is so financially powerful that it will literally recapitalize the USA.

If the next 10 years has 4 revolutions of the scale we have experienced in the last 5...the world will be radically different in 10 years.