Spoilsport, let us have our FUN!!
What’s your theory?
Good question. Facts: plane is missing, based on fuel capacity, it's no longer flying, at least two forged passports were used to board. That's the end of the fact list, so the rest is guesswork, speculation, probability.
The most likely explanation is that the aircraft experienced a catastrophic incident (mechanical or deliberate), crashed into the ocean. Some debris is floating and waits to be found, the bulk of the wreckage is on the ocean floor. Since it took five days to find the debris field of AF447, and several years to find the wreckage, I expect that we will not know much else for a week or more.
All the rest is complete nonsense.