Iraq insurgents seize oilfields, hit air base as U.S. advisers arrive

Militants attacked one of Iraq's largest air bases and seized control of several small oilfields on Wednesday as U.S. special forces troops and intelligence analysts arrived to help Iraqi security forces counter a mounting Sunni insurgency.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is fighting for his job and is under international pressure to create a more inclusive government, said he supported starting the process of forming a new cabinet within a week.

He also dismissed the call of mainly Sunni political and religious figures, some with links to armed groups fighting Maliki, for a "national salvation government" that would choose figures to lead the country and, in effect, bypass the election held nearly three months ago.

In northern Iraq, the Sunni militants extended a two-week advance that has been led by the hardline Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) but also includes an amalgam of other Sunni groups angered by Maliki's rule.

The Saudi financed ISIL fighters may have overextended themselves. There are reports that Syrian aircraft (?Russian pilots) are bombing and strafing their supply bases near the Syrian border. Hezbollah fights are also at their rear. The Iraqi army bolstered by enthusiastic Shi’ite militia appear to be holding outside of Baghdad. Also they face an attack from Iranian “volunteers” who would attack on their center flank to “protect” their shrines. ISIL could find themselves very shortly in an indefensible vise.

ISIS may have bitten off more than it can chew.

Stretched over long distances, outnumbered, and subject to their enemies total air superiority - they are at risk of catastrophic attrition if drawn into a large conventional battle, or being bled piecemeal, if some Sunni groups turn against them and start sniping.

I am still waiting to see what happens when the Shia mount some larger counter attacks. Will ISIS have to go undercover as soon as any large formation shows up?

If the main Shia shrine at Karbala gets attacked, we could see a kamikaze stampede of Shia, abandoning all limitations of law or morality.

Al Maliki having the potential for third term was enough I think for many of the Sunni tribes. The Sunni have been so disfranchised by the Malki government and frankly the Shia, perhaps through lack of management experience, old get even isms and perhaps the nature of their sect, that this was bound to happen. I was in Iraq 2005-2006 and 2011-2012. The Sunni tribes for the most part will never get along with the ISIS for long. Many are very Islam ‘lite”. I drank whisky with the brother and sheik of the founder of the “Iraq awakening” who joined allegiance with the Marines and significantly quieted down Anbar. They have no interest in the ISIS once and if they succeed, then I am told they will kick ISIS out. Many of these tribal leaders are old baathist soldiers and have no long term use for the ISIS and there 800 year old primitive ideals. Maliki is an Iranian puppet and needs to go. This is by no means over, but it will be interesting to see the final result

Thanks for your service Trapper.

The Long War Journal posted an analysis recently that talks to the Awakening Councils:

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/06/analysis_a_protracte.php

The gist is that it will be harder for them (al Sahwa) this time around to kick out the jihadis, because they won’t have all the American support, the Iraqi security forces are even -less effective now, and the Kurds are sitting this one out, possibly in a deal with Turkey for independence and/or control of their oil.

Also, the jihadis are stronger this time around with lots of resources and their A Team all busted out of jail and back in the fight. The article mentions that jihadis have been targeting the leaders of the Awakening for assassination over the last couple of years, to prepare the battlefield.

The article anticipates a hard grinding conflict to drag on, unless a political accommodation is reached.

What they don’t dwell on is how heavy the new external players will jump in. The Iranians and Syrians will be engaging in a whole new way, and the Turks are big behind the jihadi assault in Syria. The Gulf Arabs are ramped up with support flows after a few years of “Arab Spring” mid-intensity operations in Libya, Egypt, North Africa and Syria.

There is so much room for so many players to try new tricks, or overreact (Chemmical weapons, desecrate the well of the Imam Mahdi in Karbala, mass murders by the tens of thousands, crossing the border in Division or higher formations, etc).

Those guys habitually drive hard bargains, they are not likely to quickly agree to anything, without a warm gun to their heads, so I don’t expect a quick political accommodation (that would be a pleasant surprise).

I recommend stocking up on popcorn for an interesting show.

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