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Don't waste your time, m'FRiend. The author is a clown. Due to the Fed's unprecedented and overlong interference in the interest rate cycle, ANY analysis based on patterns of the past in interest rate mkts (and hence "expansions" and "recessions") is virtually guaranteed to be invalid today.

The Fed, being a private -- not governmental, check it out -- institution is all about reliquefying banks, which they've faithfully been doing since that lying sack of crap, Paulson, first stirred the panic pot in the fall of 2008. Whether Lehman or Bear, Stearns or B of A or Merrill Lynch, all these clowns leveraged their portfolios WAY PAST their tits on the theory (cough) that "this time is different".

Of course, "this time" wasn't different at all; the crash simply came from a different direction. They put an overleveraged pyramid at the DISCRETIONARY risk of the first domino to fall, blithely declaming that no domino would ever fall.

They were wrong. Overleveraged financial structures, large and small, ALWAYS fail, and typically sooner than later.

Good trading to you, but learn what's what, please, and do not trust AT ALL in either "gurus" or the financial press at large.