If Barak Obama is not the candidate and no other black candidate is running on the democrat side, blacks will not come out to vote in large numbers. The dems have already lost much of the youth vote due to Obamacare, and that no jobs to pay off school debt thing. Blacks won’t vote without a black candidate and hispanics are low info/low turn out voters as well.
If the republicans would concentrate on turning out their base, there would not be a problem. But they insist on trying to cater to everyone but majority Christian US citizens. I used to think they were “stupid.” Now I realize this is by choice. The Rockefeller wing wants to dominate conservatives so they refuse to follow the obvious logic of concentrating on turning out their own base the way the dems concentrate on turning out their base. If they did, there would be no contest. No matter how many minorities there are, citizens take civic duty more seriously than usurpers and right now, threatened with the loss of US sovereignty, US citizens have the most to lose.
But neither party stands up for them. I’m positive that is by GOPe design. Hard working conscientious US citizens don’t like socialism. Neither democrat party number one nor democrat party number two like that. They both want people to bow to their socialism.
Damn, I really like your discussion but of course you forget the most important part... Blacks will always vote for blacks and women will for the most part always vote for women. So we are left with what is left.
Lets see, those that get money for nothing will vote for who? Okay, let’s say the Democrats because they do promise these things. Lets take the rest of the electorate and see how they stand...
Oh well, lets not as it will lead to the same conclusion, those that need will vote Democrat and those that supply those needs will vote Republican. Sometimes I think that that world is dividing into two groups, those that provide and those that take...hmmm. What will happen when those that provide decide to stop providing to those that take?
Can we call that going going Galt!
Demographics do favor democrats, but there is still a chance for a conservative to win in 2016. The key factors will be:
White females. If Hillary or Warren is the Dem nominee, will white women vot for their gender and ignore the issues? If so, it won’t matter who the Repiblicans nominate.
Blacks. The Dem nominee will almost certainly be a white female. To ensure victory if white females don’t vote gender, the Dems may choose Cory Booker or Deval Patrick as the VP candidate. If that happens blacks will be energized and turn out in large numbers.
Conservative white males. This group is fed up with voting loyally for the GOP and constantly being taken for granted. The current impotence of the Republican Congress is making this solid block of reliable voters disillusioned. Jeb Bush, Romney, or Chris Christie as the GOP nominee might cause a large segment of this group to sit out the election. In that event, the Republicans would lose the White House and might lose one or both houses of Congress.
Hispanics. Even with amnesty they will not yet be registered voters in large numbers. In 2016 the number of illegals involved in voter fraud will be too small to swing the national election but might make the difference in some close congressional races. In 2020 or 2024, depending on who wins the White House in 2016, you can count on a Hispanic on the Dem ticket, probably at the top. He is sitting in the Obama cabinet today. By then 10 to 20 million illegals will be registered voters and the election will be a lock for the Dems no matter what the GOP does.
2016 is the last chance for a conservative president. It appears the GOP establishment, collaborating with the media, will do everything it can to ensure Cruz and Walker will not be the nominee. At this point my bet is Jeb or a repeat of Romney.
I’ve been spending time on college campuses recently and have observed large numbers of Asian students. Are these foreign students headed back to their home countries after graduation or are they a new block of industrious young people who should be courted by the conservative movement? If they are citizens of this country they could be decisive in close elections during the next decade.