I would say his chances are a good deal better than Chrome's. He seems to be getting better with every race. He has good early speed but also finishes strongly. Barbaro and the late great filly Ruffian had similar running styles. Ruffian would lead from the break and steadily widen the gap to the finish line, setting or tying a track record each time. Not saying that the two are comparable talent wise, though. Ruffian I'm sure would have whupped him. "Whupped"?
Whoops. You might have something there regarding California Chrome vs American Pharoah. Chrome apparently ran the Preakness nearly 4 seconds faster than AP! 1:58.46 vs 1:54.84! At least according to the info I just posted from wiki.
Just a note on a common error. Ruffian only ever equalled 2 TRs, early as a 2yo at short sprints commonly run only by 2yos.
She only set sake records for her other races - which were all female races.