Posted on 05/21/2015 6:04:09 AM PDT by kevkrom
EUROPEAN LEAGUE QUALIFYING AND RELEGATION
The top 3 teams in the Barclay's Premiere League (BPL) qualify directly to UEFA Champions League group play. The BPL champions will be a seeded team in EUFA.
The 4th place team qualifies for a UEFA play-in series against a club to be determined by draw among other qualifiers. The winner of the home-and-home series proceeds to UEFA group play.
The 5th place team qualifies for Europa League play, entering the competition at the play-off stage.
The Capital One Cup (League Cup) winner qualifies for Europa, entering at the third qualifying stage. Since the Capital One Cup was won be a team in the top 4 (Chelsea), this position will go instead to the team finishing in 6th place.
The FA Cup winner qualifies for Europa, entering at the group stage. If the FA cup winner is qualified for UEFA, the runner-up team will qualify instead. Since Arsenal will finish in the top 4, Hull City qualifies as either the Cup winner or runner-up.
A bonus Europa slot is available for the leader in the Fair Play table, as BPL as been declared one of the three top leagues in EUFA according to Fair Play rankings, entering the competition at the first qualification stage. Teams already qualified for UEFA or Europa will be passed over. (Fair Play score is determine by a combination of: taking minimal cards, “positive” play, respect for opponents, respect for officials, manager/staff behavior, and crowd behavior. Only the cards are objective, all others are at least partially subjective measures.) Note: this is the final year this bonus spot will be awarded.
BPL teams finishing between 18th and 20th are relegated to the Championship.
FINISHING SCENARIOS
Chelsea have won the BPL and the Capital One Cup.
Arsenal (72 points, +32 goal difference) and Manchester United (69 points, +25) will finish 3rd and 4th, but there’s still a long-shot chance Manchester United could overtake Arsenal for 3rd.
Hull City, despite being under threat of relegation, has qualified for Europa via the FA Cup.
5th and 6th place teams qualify for Europa; three teams are in the race to finish between 5th and 7th, and any of the teams can finish in any of the positions: Liverpool (62 points, +9), Tottenham Hotspur (61 points, +4), and Southampton (60 points, +23).
Omitting teams already qualified for European play, West Ham currently sits atop the Fair Play table, but Everton and Burnley are close enough that the final week’s play matters.
Queens Park Rangers and Burnley will both be relegated.
The final relegation spot (18th) will either be Hull City (34 points, -18) or Newcastle United (36 points, -25).
All other teams are, at best, just jockeying for a slightly better position in the final table. Only Chelsea, Manchester City, Swansea City, and Stoke City are locked into their current positions, at 1st, 2nd, 8th, and 9th, respectively.
MATCHES WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT ON QUALIFYING AND RELEGATION
Hull City / Manchester United (NBC) - Hull must win to have a chance at avoiding relegation. Manchester United is almost certainly in 4th, but a lopsided win coupled with an Arsenal loss that can flip a +7 difference would move them to 3rd.
Newcastle United / West Ham (USA) - If Hull does win, Newcastle must win to avoid being stuck in the 18th slot, as they lose tiebreakers to Hull. Note, Newcastle is 0-1-9 in their last 10. West Ham qualifies for Europa with a clean, positive game.
Stoke City / Liverpool (ScyFy) - If Liverpool wins, they’re in Europa, otherwise they’re at the mercy of the other results. They lose out on goal difference against Southampton do a Draw/Win combo there puts Southampton ahead. They beat Tottenham on goal difference, so Draw/Draw sees them in the top 6. Stoke has nothing to play for but pride.
Everton / Tottenham Hotspur (CNBC) - If Tottenham wins, they’re in Europa, otherwise they’re at the mercy of the other results. They lose out on goal difference to the other two. Everton can still qualify via Fair Play if West Ham stumbles.
Manchester City / Southampton (MSNBC) - Southampton needs help in any event to qualify for Europa, but a win puts the most pressure on the others and their chances are actually quite good. Manchester City has nothing to play for, but they have been dominating recently.
Arsenal / West Bromich Albion (Bravo) - Unlikely to matter, but if Manchester United is winning big and Arsenal is struggling, this can become interesting.
Aston Villa / Burnley (Esquire) - Mostly an after-thought, but Burnley can still squeak into Europe via Fair Play if they can nip ahead of West Ham and Everton.
For the soccer ping lists...
Tottenham going on 5 years in a row for Europa....
They’ll be gunning for the Champions League next year and I think with new signings and finally buying into the high-pressing attacking philosophy of Pochettino, they’ll get there.
Liverpool may not want to be in the Europa League. They would have to pay multiple away matches in strange eastern-european/ Russian countries and it is a serious drain.
Gerard needs to hang it up....he cost them dearly against Man U.
Gerard’s moving to the MLS this year. Getting the red card in less than a minute after being brought on against Man U was a big mistake, but he’s had a brilliant career overall. Hopefully he will have something left in the tank when he plays in the MLS.
For Liverpool, Tottenham, or Everton, I’d say Europa would act as a punishment more than a reward. The money’s not that good and it puts a hellacious strain on the players, traveling to a variety of European hell-holes for Thursday games that really disrupt the training schedule for BPL, which is what these teams need to focus on.
Why does Hull City qualify for Europa League? Aren’t Aston Villa the runner up if Arsenal wins the FA Cup?
Did I get that wrong? Oh, gosh, I did... strike Hull City and replace with Aston Villa.
In my opinion, though, a EPL/FA/EUFA treble is more valuable than a La Liga/Copa del Rey/UEFA treble.
Yeah, the EPL may not be the best league in Europe (certainly behind Bundesliga and La Liga at the very least), it may very well be the deepest, with teams way down the ladder being competitive against the top teams.
Much harder to win multiple trophies there and still manage a successful EUFA campaign, as the domestic titles are just harder to come by week in and week out, and they can’t cruise a bit and focus on the UEFA games as much.
I didn’t know if Hull City qualified because they were the 2014 runner up and the UEFA qualification lags, or if it would be the winner of Arsenal/Aston Villa.
No, I’m pretty sure it’s Aston Villa. Some of the research I was doing for the qualification stuff was from last year, and I think I just got it in my head wrong that last year’s runners-up were for this year instead.
I feel like the EPL usually has five or six contenders each season, while the entire rest of Europe seems to have about 9 or 10 contenders spread across 5 leagues.
Ligue 1 seems more competitive to me now that Lyon is somewhat dethroned, but the teams outside of PSG and Marseille are also boring.
Anyway, aside from the glaring Hull / Villa error, the games to watch are still valid.
In the relegation battle, Hull and Newcastle are both at home to good teams. Newcastle has to go all-out for a win - if Hull loses or draws, they survive anyway, so there’s nothing to risk.
For the 5th-7th places, all three are on the road, which really makes the permutations pretty interesting, because it brings losses and draws more into play.
Despite being technically alive via Fair Play, I can’t imagine any incentive to watch the Burnley match, unless you’re a die-hard fan of the teams involved.
I’m actually all for dumping the entire Europa League all together. As you say, it’s way too much of a strain on travel and the players who already have a ridiculous playing schedule.
I think it’s a good competition for the “lesser” leagues, to help develop their top teams to be more competitive, but for the top-flight leagues, the potential rewards generally aren’t worth the costs.
Of course, it was only a few years ago that Chelsea qualified for UEFA (knocking out Tottenham, who finished 4th) by winning Europa, so maybe that dream still lives on.
But that was a case of falling into Europa by failing to get out of a UEFA group stage, and going to Europa for the knock-out stages, wasn’t it? That’s probably a better route anyway.
soccer ping
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