personally, i think this one is the more likely to be correct:
http://www.pcworld.com/article/3026461/data-center-cloud/microsofts-bing-just-called-the-first-four-primaries-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton.html
Microsofts computer and Emerson College match almost perfectly for the democratic side
Neither Iowa nor Nevada are “primaries,” they are caucus states.