No need for a pool.
Simple math would tell you that out of the trillions of stars in the Local Group alone that there is a high probability that there is some life somewhere out there.
While I would say your reasoning is not conclusive, it is a far cry from the point I was making. There is simply no evidence for life beyond Earth, yet for some reason people completely discount the possibility that the Earth is unique. In fact they mock anyone who holds that possibility might be true.
Simple knowledge of high-school biology will tell you that random molecular interactions could never form even the simplest live single-cell organism, let alone one that could divide, grow to “adult” size, and divide again.
Simple math would tell you that out of the trillions of stars in the Local Group alone that there is a high probability that there is some life somewhere out there.
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We obviously live in a solar system that is friendly to life, yet life is very rare within it. Even here on Earth the ratio of biomass to mass is about 3 parts in 10 billion. I’d say your math isn’t so simple.
The Local Group consists of just over 50 galaxies, with ours (the Milky Way) and Andromeda being the largest. The MW and Andromeda each have between 200 to 400 billion stars. In other words, there aren’t “trillions” of stars in the local group. However, there are perhaps a hundred billion other galaxies scattered throughout the universe.
“The Local Group is the galaxy group that includes the Milky Way. The Local Group comprises more than 54 galaxies, most of them dwarf galaxies.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_Group
“Simple math would tell you...”
Simple math would tell no such thing. In order to posit such an opinion you have to accept unproven assumptions, which has nothing to do with math.
Well, if all it takes is a trillion then there must be a high probability that Hillary Clinton has been to one or more of those stars. Either that or a trillion doesn't really solve all the issues of the basic problem, as the evolutionist preaches. Time and chance is all you need per the evolutionist preacher.
I think we will find that life is fairly common in the Universe but intelligent life extremely rare. It took the Earth 4.5 billion years to develop us. That is quite a long time. Lots of things can go very very wrong in 4.5 billion years.
I totally agree, but...
The probability that they are close enough to ours as to be able to communicate is essentially nil. Or even have the ability to ever become aware of the other(s)