[ctdonath2]

Bookies have to be VERY careful about making bets that a bettor can actually act on (precisely why athletes are not allowed to bet on their own games).

I recall years ago there being much discussion about the prospects of an anonymous betting pool focused on assassinations, as a way of persuading hit men to take jobs. (Details escape me, been like 20 years.) For a bookie to take such a bet today would be tantamount to facilitating political murder: someone anonymously bets that a target will expire in a given timeframe, the bet is accepted (say, large numbers of Leftists chip in $1000 each on grounds that they’re betting he’ll live), hit happens, anonymous payout (Bitcoin, other arrangements), lots of feigned shock (and backroom partying) at the outcome.

He11 no those bets won’t be taken. If won, bookie gets charged with felony accessory to murder of government agent - goodbye.

[Garth Tater]

I recall years ago there being much discussion about the prospects of an anonymous betting pool focused on assassinations, as a way of persuading hit men to take jobs.

Assassination Marketplace

"An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymous electronic money and pseudonymous remailers) on the date of death of a given individual, and collect a payoff if they "guess" the date accurately. This would incentivise assassination of individuals because the assassin, knowing when the action would take place, could profit by making an accurate bet on the time of the subject's death. Because the payoff is for accurately picking the date rather than performing the action of the assassin, it is substantially more difficult to assign criminal liability for the assassination."

[agere_contra]

I recall years ago there being much discussion about the prospects of an anonymous betting pool focused on assassinations, as a way of persuading hit men to take jobs

Agatha Christie got there first, in "the Pale Horse".