Posted on 06/02/2017 11:11:00 AM PDT by mountn man
So, yesterday ADP releases it's job numbers, 253,000 new jobs vs 185,000 estimated.
And everybody here at FR is whooping and hollering.
Then the BLS numbers are released today and their numbers are WAAAAAY down.
138,000 according to BLS.
Almost 50,000 BELOW what was expected.
So, what is right and what is wrong?
How can ADP be almost twice of BLS?
The Atlanta Fed projected the Q2 GDP growth at a 4% pace.
That suggests the economy is on a tear.
Does anybody know the reality of the labor situation?
And can you explain it for the rest of us?
Well ... some of the numbers are just made up ...
>Does anybody know the reality of the labor situation?
> And can you explain it for the rest of us?
Sure. We’re in Great Depression II, or perhaps a Greater Depression.
Actual unemployment according to the common sense meaning of the term is very probably 33%+.
If you’re familiar with Japan’s Lost Decades, we’re replaying that.
Anyone without in-demand marketable skills has a future of inconsistent employment and consistent poverty.
BLS numbers were almost 50,000 off from projected, and yet unemployment went from 4.4% in April to 4.3% in May.
Surprised the truth is not being told of about the USA economy.
And everybody here at FR is whooping and hollering.
I can't understand it either.
These same FReepers spent the last 8+ years screaming that the employment and job numbers were nothing but lies.
I used to do research into certain aspects of the Chinese economy. Finally, a government official basically admitted to me, they just make it up. The central government gives the provinces a target, and they always manage to come in just above it.
Obama holdovers in the BLS.
Always remember.
If your neighbor is unemployed, times are getting hard.
If your brother in law is out of work, it is a recession.
If you are out of work, it is a depression.
Adp numbers are more useful.
I do think BLS numbers are cooked. Crank them up for O and crank them down for Trump.
We are coming out of the real Great Depression right now.
60% of all families have been affected by this depression, only 43% during FDR’s screw up.
I don’t have to economically respond immediately to BLS numbers. Which is good because I never believe the initial release but wait for the inevitable revision. I’m guessing that the new norm will be upward revisions now that Trump is in office. For Obama, it seemed that the revisions were mostly downward. Of course, the initial announcements come with much fanfare, the revisions with little.
Deep State trying to make Trump look very BAD!!!
The data cited is seasonally-adjusted data. Look at the non-seasonally-adjusted data for a better view of what is really happening.
What's so hard to understand? When you change how the numbers are calculated there are plenty of reasons to complain that they are lies. Once the lie has been told and the new calculation is in place, the month to month changes are relevant. It doesn't mean that the numbers are correct, but rather you are comparing apples to apples as opposed to apples to ball bearings.
BLS survey
There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.
ADP survey
The ADP National Employment Report (also popularly known as the ADP Jobs Report or ADP Employment Report) is sponsored by ADP, and was originally developed and maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. The report’s methodology was revised in November 2012 by Moody’s Analytics. The report is a measure of non-farm private sector employment which is obtained by utilizing an anonymous subset of roughly 400,000 U.S. businesses which are clients of ADP. During the twelve-month period, this subset averaged over U.S. business clients and over U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors.
If GDP gets to 4 percent jobs will follow...jobs are a lagging indicator
“If GDP gets to 4 percent jobs will follow...jobs are a lagging indicator”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3557173/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3557357/posts
The increase of jobs is in spite of reduction of part-time employment.
U-6 unemployment rate takes into account unemployment, discouraged, marginally attached workers and part-timers who would like full-time work. Since January, the official unemployment rate has fallen from 4.8 to 4.3 percent. This is great. Also since January, the official unemployment rate has fallen from 9.4 to 8.4 million. This is even better.
We need to maintain momentum to turn even more people around. We want everybody to feel good about looking for work, and seeking pay raises and benefits. This means we want to repeal and replace, and we want tax reform. A Trump America works for everybody and is a place where everybody works. No moochers. The safety net is for those who paid in while they were young and in good health.
I don't care who's President, when we have yet another record number of people out of the workforce to the tune of some 94,000,000 now an unemployment rate of 4.3% is just plain bullshit.
It was bullshit under Obama and it's bullshit under Trump.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
Table B-2
Not Seasonally adjusted April; 145,938
Not Seasonally Adjusted May: 146,748
New Jobs: 1,810
Seasonally adjusted April; 145,997
Seasonally adjusted May; 146,135
New Jobs: 138,000
In other words the not seasonally adjusted number of + 1,810 after being run through the birth and death model and seasonal adjusttment becomes= 138,000
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