You have tremendous opportunities in the skilled trades these days and a generation or two who are really horrible with their hands and more importantly are uninterested in learning. Its how they grew up. I see it every day.
Technical knowhow is a blessing.
Another factor for the shortage is those seasoned mechanics who stayed end up having to fix the repairs being botched by these replacement mechanics. This leads to burn out and their leaving.
The shortage of qualified mechanics largely boils down to GREED on the part of the dealerships. They take the lion's share of the profits and leave the scraps for the mechanics who are doing all of the work.
Our local Job-Link (employment office) has partnered with a local dealer and the JC to create programs that train people in exactly what the dealers need with almost guaranteed employment after the program. Seems to be working really well.
Back in the late eighties, I was moonlighting in a friend’s independent garage. The factories were sending the independents in those days servicing literature for the newer cars, fuel injection, anti-lock brakes etc. In my spare moments, I would sit down with this stuff and read it. It struck me that the literature was written for those with a solid reading and comprehension background. I read, not too long that a school that offered auto mechanics as a major was turning away applicants because they could not read well enough. Getting back to the basics, reading skills that were never pushed in the early years are now being shown to matter.
You are right about vehicles being complex these days. In fact, I think they are unnecessarily complex & there is not enough info from the manufacturers to do a quick competent repair. Some of their troubleshooting procedures do not much more than lead you in circles & then ask you to try a “possibly needed” part that is ridiculously expensive. Too many expensive parts & high labor prices lead to customers declining repairs. In the meantime it is often the case where the tech who works on commission used to get 50% of the labor is down to less than half that, while the vehicles are much more complicated. While the repair operator has to invest in more expensive equipment, so too has the mechanic needed to buy much more expensive hand tools as well as some light equipment that is not furnished. If one is working in a dealership on a commission basis, there are numerous ways you can lose money on customer paid repairs, & more yet on warranty work. Good careers?? Not unless you can overcome these obstacles & pretty much know what you’ll be making.
I must have had bad mechanics at PepBoys when I went there.
1st mechanic put my steering column on very crooked after a wheel alignment. The 2nd mechanic put the timing belt on wrong. Made a heck of a noise. Never went back after that.
I emailed a mechanic named Scotty Kilmer from youtube and he responded that I should not go there except maybe for an oil change.
Scotty Kilmer - 200 million viewers at Youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DsgBonIcO4