Replies

Well, the industry always takes certain gambles on new designs and hopes they end up producing what the market wants. Boeing obviously thought the MAX would allow them to extend the lifespan of the base 737 model until 2030 or so, when they could finally replace the 737 with a totally new design. But they rushed the MAX to keep up with Airbus's A320 NEO series and now they have a big public relations issue that may be unresolvable. Boeing's next big project was supposed to be the 797 as a mid-sized replacement for the 757 and 767. They may now have to shelve that and start full time work on a 737 replacement, especially since there are many new competitors entering the market for smaller jets.

Airbus made a similar gamble with the A380 - which arrived about 15 years too late. Boeing had already gotten a stranglehold on the large jet segment with the more efficient twin-engine 777 and will probably keep that lead for some time to come, killing off both the A380 and their own 747-8 in the process. The medium-large segment continues to be competitive, with the 787 and A350 both selling well.

But Boeing has won the large jet market just when it appears most the future profit growth is going to come from the smaller jet market. The MAX's problems make it look like - suddenly - Boeing does not have a solid entry in that race.