Posted on 05/18/2019 10:05:17 AM PDT by ETL
8. Signalman, 30-1 (Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.): Connections to the Grade 2 winner passed on entering the Derby as an also-eligible — Signalman had a gash over his eye that required some time — and bring a fresh horse into this race. The son of General Quarters was third last time in Keeneland’s Blue Grass (G2).
9. Bodexpress, 20-1 (Gustavo Delgado/John Velazquez): The horse is a maiden, and the Preakness is one major race missing from Velazquez’s resume. Even though Bodexpress finished 13th in the Derby, he more than justified a trip there, getting cut off on the front stretch and shuffled back while making a bid through the far turn.
10. Everfast, 50-1 (Dale Romans/Joel Rosario): Maybe he’s the next Oxbow. That Preakness longshot upset in 2013 for Calumet Farm, which next sends this winner of one race in 10 lifetime starts. Everfast's best race came when rallying for second in the Holy Bull (G2) at 128-1. Since then, he hasn't hit the board in three starts.
11. Laughing Fox, 20-1 (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.): The son of Union Rags has won three of five starts this season and last time took the inaugural Oaklawn Invitational on May 4 against a bit of a speed bias. He was also fourth behind some classy colts — Omaha Beach, Improbable and Country House — in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
12. Anothertwistafate, 6-1 (Blaine Wright/Jose Ortiz): Connections passed on the Derby with a “Win and You’re In” free trip to the Preakness in hand. The colt, three times a dominant winner on synthetic, has run second in back-to-back Grade 3 starts on dirt. Do you chalk that up to the trip or a preference for another surface?
13. Win Win Win, 15-1 (Michael Trombetta/Julian Pimentel): He exits a ninth-place finish in the Derby with a valid excuse. This one just didn't take to the slop. Trombetta bases his charge in Maryland, where he has already butted heads once with Alwaysmining. The son of Hat Trick may get the setup he needs to close into a nice finish.
There won’t be a Triple Crown winner in 2019, as an already weird and wacky month in horse racing just gets weirder.
The Preakness Stakes is set to go off at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore at 6:48 p.m. ET on Saturday without the Kentucky Derby winner.
It’s the first time since 1996, when Grindstone was retired due to injury, that the Preakness won’t feature the winner from the first leg of the Triple Crown.
It doesn’t matter whether you believe the true Kentucky Derby winner is Maximum Security, who was disqualified from first place for interference, or Country House, the runner-up who was elevated to winner. They’re both skipping the Preakness.
Country House is out of the race because of an illness, and Maximum Security’s connections said they won’t run the colt again with just a two-week break without a Triple Crown on the line.
But even without Country House or Maximum Security in the race, there are still several intriguing subplots in the Preakness.
Here are five storylines to watch for the middle leg of the Triple Crown.
Derby fallout
The Kentucky Derby finish might hang over this particular Triple Crown series for years to come.
The Derby sent spectators and bettors into a frenzy when Maximum Security became the first horse in the 145-year history of the event to be disqualified for a race-riding incident after finishing first.
But things didn't end there, as the owners of Maximum Security have filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn his disqualification after an unsuccessful appeal to the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.
Maximum Security's jockey, Luis Saez, was also suspended 15 racing days for his ride in the Kentucky Derby, which he has appealed.
The only historical precedent for a disqualification in the Kentucky Derby is the case of Dancer's Image, who was disqualified days after the 1968 race following a positive drug trust for a then-banned substance. His owners also filed a lawsuit and initially won, but it was overturned upon appeal in 1972 after years of legal battles.
_______________________________________________
Here is the order of finish for the 2019 Kentucky Derby, followed by (brief) expert comments on each horse's trip.
Footnotes
MAXIMUM SECURITY came away in good order to take a short lead through the stretch the first time, edged away up the backstretch slightly off the rail, veered out sharply forcing WAR OF WILL out into LONG RANGE TODDY and BODEXPRESS nearing the five-sixteenths pole, responded when challenged from both flanks by CODE OF HONOR and COUNTRY HOUSE, and edged away from the latter through the final stages.
COUNTRY HOUSE settled in the middle of the field three wide off the first turn, advanced four wide into the far turn, was brushed by LONG RANGE TODDY while largely unaffected by the incident five-sixteenths out, loomed boldly outside MAXIMUM SECURITY coming to the eighth-pole, was repelled by that one and held the place.
CODE OF HONOR moved closer to the first flight saving ground after a half-mile, was presented with a large opening slipping through to take a short lead after a mile, but flattened out through upper stretch.
TACITUS steadied while unsettled behind horses first time through the stretch, found a better rhythm through the middle stages, came five wide off the far turn, exchanged brushes with GAME WINNER late and finished with good courage.
IMPROBABLE went along in striking range covered up in the two-path, idled through the far turn in traffic losing some position, shifted out in the drive and offered a mild response.
GAME WINNER was well in arrears widest arriving midway up the backstretch, bumped solidly with BY MY STANDARDS near the half-mile pole, continued extremely wide around the far turn and into the stretch, exchanged brushes with TACITUS late and did not have enough.
MASTER FENCER (JPN) veered out to get away behind his field, was crowded from heavy outside pressure at the start, went along striding a bit awkwardly far back early inside, moved out up the backstretch, began taking better hold of the track in the two-path into the stretch, moved back inside and finished willingly.
WAR OF WILL [#1, also w/pink jockey silks] found a good spot saving ground off the leaders under a firm hold, continued along reserved waiting for room into the far turn, shifted outside MAXIMUM SECURITY leaving the three-eighths pole, was forced out by that rival into LONG RANGE TODDY, checked hard off heels, remained prominent in the three-path to upper stretch and weakened.
PLUS QUE PARFAIT was unhurried early two wide, moved through along the rail improving position after the first mile, moved back out to the two-path and could not sustain the bid.
WIN WIN WIN raced four wide early, moved inward after that and failed to menace.
CUTTING HUMOR entered the backstretch five wide and well back, made a run into the far turn getting fanned six wide in the process, and gave way through the stretch.
BY MY STANDARDS was squeezed back at the start to get away slowly, raced three wide around the first turn, moved out wider bumping with GAME WINNER near the half-mile marker, and lacked a serious response.
VEKOMA stayed close four wide through the opening half-mile, and began to
fade steadily after six furlongs.
BODEXPRESS angled inward after breaking alertly, was forwardly placed three wide for six furlongs, was forced to take up sharply between LONG RANGE TODDY and COUNTRY HOUSE near the five-sixteenths, and dropped back.
TAX saved ground throughout and was no factor.
ROADSTER was six or seven wide off the first turn, continued along extremely wide the rest of the way and was never in contention.
LONG RANGE TODDY angled inward after an alert beginning, attended the pace outside MAXIMUM SECURITY, was bumped and forced out into BODEXPRESS while checking sharply approaching the five-sixteenths, and retreated.
SPINOFF raced five wide early, moved further out around the far turn and was empty by the quarter-pole.
GRAY MAGICIAN gained mildly two wide after six furlongs, but was finished by the quarter-pole.
The jockeys of LONG RANGE TODDY and COUNTRY HOUSE lodged an objection against MAXIMUM SECURITY for interference nearing the five-sixteenths marker.
Following the Stewards review MAXIMUM SECURITY was disqualified from first and placed seventeenth for veering out and stacking up WAR OF WILL, LONG RANGE TODDY,and BODEXPRESS.
Due to the scratches of OMAHA BEACH and HAIKAL, the inside stall of the starting gate was left vacant.
Source:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD050419USA12.pdf
There has also been talk, that the Preakness could move out of Pimlico, because Pimlico is an old run down track. And the owners of Pimlico own another race track in Maryland, and don’t want to spend big bucks to renovate Pimlico.
Yes, thanks for mentioning it.
From Feb, 2019
The Preakness Stakes will remain at Pimlico Race Course at least through 2020 as the track’s owner seeks to ready a “super track” at Laurel Park that could host the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown in the future.
The owner of the race and the 149-year-old Pimlico track said Wednesday that Laurel Park would not be ready to host the Preakness in 2020 — even if the General Assembly approved a change of venue.
“It has to be run [at Pimlico] this year. It has to be run there next year,” said Tim Ritvo, chief operating officer of The Stronach Group’s racing division.
“We couldn’t hold the Preakness at Laurel in the condition it’s in. It needs the upgrades,” Ritvo said in an interview.
Baltimore leaders blast Pimlico owner for spending bulk of state renovation subsidies at Laurel Park
State law says the Preakness can be moved from Pimlico to another track in Maryland “only as a result of a disaster or emergency,” so the company would need legislative support to move the Preakness to Laurel on any other basis.
This year’s Preakness is May 18. Until now, it was uncertain what The Stronach Group’s plans were beyond 2019 — other than the company’s often-stated desire to move the race to Laurel at some point in the future.
Mayor Catherine Pugh said Wednesday that her only response to the news was that she looks forward to participating in a proposed work group to study Pimlico’s long-term outlook. ...”
https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horse-racing/bs-md-pimlico-future-20190227-story.html
If I were playing long: Signalman.
My exacta would be Bourbon War/Signalman up and down.
The sum of the odds of winning is 1.46.
Looks like the Bookies are SURE that least one horse will win....
I’ll give you ONE guess as to which, by name of horse alone, would be the best “Trump-inspired” pick.
Is it true Pimlico has a very short racing season? If so then it doesn’t make a lot of economic sense to spend a lot of money fixing up this track.
The interest in the Preakness this year is rather dismal without either of the two top horses running and no chance of a Triple Crown winner at all.
Good Lord since when does the legislature dictate where a race can be run. Trying to prop up an old track past it’s prime all for the sake of tradition. Would be a different story if the track had been kept up.
Now that I look at it again, there are a bunch that would be great Trump-inspired picks! But that first one that I had in mind still, I think, stands out.
It would be different if the City of Baltimore had kept the track's 'hood up.
Very true.
Thanks for all your hard work putting this thread together with all the background. FR is the center of the thinking universe.
well, #4 is sure IMPROBABLE !! who else do we know and love was IMPROBABLE???
The Belmont Stakes was run at Aqueduct for several years in the 1960’s while the new Belmont park was being built.
There was little controversy with this arrangement but horse racing didn’t have the PR problems back then that it does now.
Lucky #13 was actually the one that had first come to my mind: "Win Win Win". But, like the one you mentioned, there are several other good ones.
Thanks for info about the Belmont having been relocated while the track was renovated. Perhaps the same will happen with the Preakness and Pimlico.
From a money standpoint, since the owners of Pimlico own another track nearby, they don’t really want to invest hundreds of millions in Pimlico.
Apparently there is a state law.in Maryland mandating that the Preakness be run at Pimlico. So political considerations may well determine the future of Pimlico.
Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but:
Since there will be no triple crown winner this year, and no rematch of top horses from the Kentucky Derby, how many people will NBC get to watch this year’s race?
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