“though manufacturing may become more local, it will be because it’s all done by robots and computers.”
We are heading into a period where a lot of former human functions will be automated, in a relatively rapid wave. In controlled environments (like factories) initially, but also out in the wide world (self-driving cars, trucks and drones), and within the household.
It is already a major trend in factories, and will expand broadly into mobile functions during the 2020s. During the 2030s, there will likely be wholesale replacement of people in dirty, dangerous and repetitive or low-skill jobs.
It will likely be a more rapid transition, than was the mechanization of agriculture in reducing the farm employment from the majority of the population down to just about 3% now.
New jobs will develop, and the overall standard of living will likely accelerate pretty sharply.
I came up with a prediction about a year ago that’s not hard to envision:
You know how homes used to have “wardrobes”, and then somebody invented the built in closet for bedrooms? Well how about this world:
Dependencies:
1. where you have a “built in refrigerator/freezer with outside access.
2. Self driving fully robotic vehicles without features required if driven by a human.
3. Foot containers with a built in chip that notifies “the internet of things” that they are running low.
4. A computer that constantly monitors how long it takes you to use food.
5. A food distribution plant that includes fully robotic pickers.
So, here is how it works:
1. You have an account at Kroger with automated food delivery.
2. The refrigerator (and pantry) monitors quantity of vegetables and meats, and containerized foods share remaining content information with the internet of things. It also monitors spoilage.
3. Every week a list of needed items is automatically sent to Kroger. you also can go online via your phone to “custom order” stuff for the next delivery (e.g. candy bars or other “single order” items)
4. The automated pickers at Kroger pull the necessary items and put them in “your” section of a self driving delivery vehicle. The vehicle lumps your section with sections for customers near you, on the same route.
5. The self driving vehicle makes its rounds. When it gets to your house, it opens the back of your refer and pantry (using a key code) and restocks everything.
6. You get a bill every month.
The result, you rarely ever set foot in any kind of food store. You simply always have the food you need at home when you need it. And here’s the kicker - it is the only world your kids will know.
This sort of thing can be applied to all sorts of aspects of human life. There is almost nothing we will have to do ourselves. The plumbing will even know when to call a plumber, thanks to moisture sensors. That kind of stuff.