One series of articles that I thought were interesting were about independent measures of what is really going on in China. Here's a snip from one from today - China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero
In our ongoing attempts to glean some objective insight into what is actually happening "on the ground" in the notoriously opaque China, whose economy has been hammered by the Coronavirus epidemic, yesterday we showed several "alternative" economic indicators such as real-time measurements of air pollution (a proxy for industrial output), daily coal consumption (a proxy for electricity usage and manufacturing) and traffic congestion levels (a proxy for commerce and mobility), before concluding that China's economy appears to have ground to a halt.Much more at the link.That conclusion was cemented after looking at some other real-time charts which suggest that there is a very high probability that China's GDP in Q1 will not only flatline, but crater deep in the red for one simple reason: there is no economic activity taking place whatsoever.
We start with China's infrastructure and fixed asset investment, which until recently accounted for the bulk of Chinese GDP. As Goldman writes in an overnight report, in the Feb 7-13 week, steel apparent demand is down a whopping 40%, but that's only because flat steel is down "only" 12% Y/Y as some car plants have ordered their employee to return to work (likely against their will as the epidemic still rages).
First case reported in Africa after the Egyptian Health Ministry confirms non-Egyptian patient who recently traveled to China
Hubei health officials report 2,420 new cases and 139 new deaths for Feb. 14
NHC officials report an additional 4 deaths and 2,641 cases.
China warns of incoming case surge
China says 1,716 medical workers have been infected
WHO demands to know more about sick doctors, insists group of 12 virus experts will reach Beijing over the weekend
Singapore reports largest daily jump in cases amid increased human-to-human transmission
Egypt confirms first case; virus now present in 29 countries/territories
Hong Kong reports 3 new cases
New quarantine measures take effect in Wuhan
President Xi touts new "biosecurity law"
Hong Kong Disney land offers space for quarantine
Chinese company says blood plasma of recovered patients useful in combating the virus
US mulling new travel restrictions
Japan reports 4 new cases; one patient recently returned from Hawaii.
CDC Director: Virus is "Coming" to the US.
5 presumptive cases reported in British Columbia
Toll of infected passengers and crew aboard 'the Diamond Princess' climbs to 218
I don’t think traffic is a good indicator of economic activity. Beijing has ordered private companies to find a way for their employees to work from home. Telecomuting/videoconferencing. So anything that’s not hands-on human production lines will still happen.
We may see a tremendous ramping up of automation on a much larger scale worldwide so that one or a dozen people can run a factory. Probably wont get any madi-gras beads this year but computers can sew masks and PPE suits and make widgets and electronic chips and cheap 99centstore plastics. Other robots can accept, log in, transport and prepare for shipping. You might have one man putting on all the car doors on an assembly line, instead of one on each door. Slower, but still moving.
China is already using electric delivery vehicles similar to Amazon carts to deliver whatever, and talking electric carts inside isolation units to deliver food and drink to patients under observation, minimizing patient contact.
In the US, we’re guiding multiple aircraft from one control aircraft. Boats the same way. So there’s your international shipping. What’s that new satellite grid Starlink? Skynet?
If this was 50 years ago, I’d be way apprehensive. But look at the leaps in tech and robotics in just the past 5 years. How much more developed will that field be 5 years from now when the need turns from hobby to critical and all the geeks and nerds in the world get busy with some serious level tinkering?