I am awaiting news from East Africa. Once it gets deep into the Continent, all bets are off. I imagine Central Asia (India especially) would be a firebreak we need to keep in place.
And is there anyone alive in Indonesia?
Bloomberg map shows no reported cases in Indonesia. Yet...
Regarding India, a reminder we are approaching the Trump visit date.
Lancet paper - Feb 20, ‘20
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30411-6/fulltext
Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa were the countries at highest importation risk from China, with moderate to high SPAR capacity scores (87, 76, and 62, respectively) and IDVI (53, 49, and 69, respectively; Figure 2, Figure 3).
Countries with the second highest importation risk ranking included Nigeria and Ethiopia, with moderate capacity (51 and 67, respectively), but high vulnerability (27 and 38, respectively), and substantially larger populations potentially exposed (figure 1).
Morocco, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya had similar moderate importation risk and population sizes; however, these countries presented variable levels of capacity (ranging from 34 to 75) and an overall low IDVI (<46), reflecting a high vulnerability (except Morocco, with an IDVI of 56).
All other countries had low to moderate importation risk and low to moderate IDVI, with most having a low SPAR capacity score, with the exception of Tunisia and Rwanda. No substantial change was observed when the larger basins of attraction for the airports of Beijing and Shanghai were considered