While I am certain that the Chicoms would lie about anything, any time, if it were in their interests, you should take seriously the POSSIBILITY that lockdowns of the nature conducted in China in January and February have stemmed the rise in new cases.
You will only know if that is true, after the locked down communities are reopened and the dead accurately counted. That may never happen. Wuhan tried to lift travel restrictions and Chicoms came down hard and shut it down. Beijing is under threat. The problem is the recovered can get it again. So it is either morphing too quickly or our antibodies are not enough.