Indeed, who can (low resolution): 
Posted on 03/16/2020 10:08:22 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
We just saw friends on the weekend who recovered from bronchitis and pneumonia about 10 -14 days ago. They had been on a Caribbean cruise in February and got sick within a few days of their return. They both said it kicked their butts, came on fast. The doctor tested them for flu which was negative but the CV test hadn’t been widely implemented by the time they saw the doctor. The one with the pneumonia had a fever, chills, and the pneumonia. The other had a cough without fever that developed into bronchitis. The one with bronchitis was sick for 5 days, and the one with pneumonia was sick for 9-10. We are all pretty certain that it was CoVid 19, but will be two of those undiagnosed cases, that are both recovered from.
If every car and truck on the roads had a top speed of 15 mph far fewer people would die in car accidents.
We’ve made a decision as a society to allow higher speeds in the interest of societal efficiency.
Everyone can’t hide in their homes for a year, or there won’t be a country left.
Mainstream and social media needs to be reined in from the promotion of panic, or the world’s financial system is going to crash.
It’s a cost/benefit situation.
I was accused of being a carrier because I have seasonal allergies. I was told by this person that I shouldn’t be around her. I have seasonal allergies nearly all year long, sometimes worse, sometimes better. I’m guessing that this person will forever have me labeled now as a CoVid carrier, which I could be, but not much different from her or the members of her own family. I guess I will nix seeing her from pretty much now on. At first I was upset. Now I realize it’s a blessing. I don’t have to pretend to like her anymore.
How many of those elderly in Italy would have, statistical, did during the same period?
If the MSM could hang auto deaths around Trump’s neck like they are trying to with this thing, we would all only be allowed to go 15 miles an hour everywhere.
I’m more concerned with them finding a treatment. There is several vaccines in the works, but something that treats the effects would really boost morale.
My mistake, I misread what you were saying.
Treatment would be better, yes.
Wouldn’t have to spool up production for 350M doses just for this country.
Could be used to treat those who, for one reason or another, seem to be more seriously affected with this.
The rest of ‘us’ (hopefully i’m one of the ‘us’) could just sniffle/sneeze/cough a day or two and move on.
if these rates hold a second week out, cases will be 170,000 with 875 deaths. A third week would be 1,156,000 cases with 3,150 deaths.
With just 6 more weeks from today at these rates EVERYONE in the US would be infected with 147,000 deaths. At a certsin point as hospitals are overloaded the death rate would climb. A million deaths would not be an unreasonable assumption. Obviously not everyone could get infected, but this shows how quickly this thing could get out of hand. In 6 more weeks everyone gets it!
confirmed cases can create a false reality if you take them as a serious number.
testing in the US is something of a joke. for the most part people who absolutely should be tested often are refused (varies by state). confirmed positive mostly is folks so bad off and lucky enough to be approved for a test, + certain associated persons and an NBA team.
death tolls will suffer the same underreported effect, if you die of pneumonia but weren’t tested, you aren’t a stat.
for italy I use the daily death toll (moving average of same, essentially) and running total of same to model infection spread 2.5-3 weeks prior. not sure data from the US will be honest enough to do the same, but that is a much more robust stat than how many people each state can and decides to test on a given day.
Or maybe the sign of a successful communist coverup?
I am VERY skeptical that this thing will slow down until 60%-80% of the population has been infected ("herd immunity") or a successful vaccine is administered to 60%-80% of the population and they have developed antibodies.
COVID-19 reports by Neil Ferguson, et al, Imperial College London, March 16, 2020:
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.The disease will "quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed."We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.
i am amazed people talk about china data as anything attached to reality.
their daily numbers could be replicated in advance via simple equation! the office publishing those numbers likely didn’t even know the real internal numbers either.
it is silly to even take them into account, ever. when I see a post referring to them it is hard to finish the post.
i have read over general case profile literature from wuhan, however. hopefully non-political stuff like that (not official numbers) is essentially accurate.
That we should not wholly trust stats from China is an understatement
Indeed, who can (low resolution):
RE: Everyone can’t hide in their homes for a year, or there won’t be a country left.
No one is telling everyone to hide behind their homes for a year. Not Trump, not the CDC, not even liberal Democrat governors. Heck not even the Totalitarian government in Wuhan tells their citizens to totally stay home.
Here’s an alternative explanation from Nobel Laureate in Molecular Biology, Michael Levitt as to why the trend will not look so dire based on recent historical cases:
https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145
“The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.”
Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.
But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop,” Levitt said. “A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
Levitt likened the trend to diminishing interest rates: if a person receives a 30% interest rate on their savings on Day 1, a 29% rate on Day 2, and so on, “you understand that eventually, you will not earn very much.”
Similarly, although new cases are being reported in China, they represent a fraction of those reported in the early stages. “Even if the interest rate keeps dropping, you still make money,” he said. “The sum you invested does not lessen, it just grows more slowly. When discussing diseases, it frightens people a lot because they keep hearing about new cases every day. But the fact that the infection rate is slowing down means the end of the pandemic is near.”
By plotting the data forward, Levitt has predicted that the virus will likely disappear from China by the end of March.
THE REASON for the slowdown is due to the fact that exponential models assume that people with the virus will continue to infect others at a steady rate. In the early phase of COVID-19, that rate was 2.2 people a day on average.
“In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people,” Levitt said. “But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.”
However, that doesn’t mean Levitt is dismissive of the precautions being put in place by governments around the world.
“You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt said. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances, a carrier will only infect 1.5 people every three days and the rate will keep going down.”
Isolation and limiting social contact is not the only factor at play, however. In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms.
“Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu,” Levitt said. Based on those figures, his conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune.
RE: Yes if it’s a choice of my liberty and the possibility of infecting your 85 year old 50 year smoker grandmother with a version of the flu...I’m picking me over your grandmother
Then all you’re doing is creating internal strife between people like me and you. People like me will be at war with people like you who refuse to exercise a little discipline and bear a little inconvenience.
In the end, you are simply creating the conditions for some sort of civil unrest. I don’t think this is what the framers had in mind.
Liberty has to be disciplined by societal order, not wanton exercise of one’s freedom to the detriment of the good of one’s community or society.
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