Covid-19: The numbers tell the story. Here's what we are learning so far regarding this pandemic

American Thinker ^ | 03/16/2020 | Marc Shepard

[SeekAndFind]

Updated.

By merging datasets recently made available by the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Johns Hopkins University, I’ve gathered some truly fascinating trend statistics on the global penetration of Covid-19 which I’m now prepared to share. There are 20 infected countries on page one of my analysis – and these are their stories.

You’ll notice that this particular data-snapshot contains population, new cases reported, deaths and recoveries by country of exposure. I’ve added 5 columns for each metric: total, today, last 5 days, 6-10 days ago, and 11-15 days ago are calculated for each in order to spot trends.

I’ve also added percentages of cases per population, fatalities per caseload, and recoveries per caseload, by country and worldwide.

The 2020 populations came courtesy of a UN dataset which I joined to an ECDC dataset for daily new case and death details and a JHU-CSSE dataset for recovery details. The latter 2 are updated daily at 0800 GMT.

I was tempted to submit the result-set without comment, but perhaps I should get the conversation started.

Coronavirus (Covid-19) – By the Numbers

Note: When reading this section, please keep in mind that its analysis was penned based on older data (3/14/20). I’ve added an update including latest data table in the final section. Together, the 2 days’ data tell quite the fast-paced story. Hang on to your hat.

Note: This was Saturday

Now then, I’ve sorted the result-set descending by caseload, which, of course, puts the country where it all began, China, on top by a wide margin with 80,973 confirmed cases, 3,194 deaths and 64,196 patients recovered. Given a population of 1.44 Billion, that’s a 0.005626 % infection rate (that’s 1 in 19,011); a 3.94 % mortality rate and a 79.28 % recovery rate thus far.

[SeekAndFind]

Additionally, over the past 15 days, cases and deaths are both trending WAY down while recoveries trend up. A great sign of successful countermeasures policy.

[CaptainK]

Italy/USA reported deaths days 1-16

1/1
2/6
3/9
7/11
11/12
12/15
17/19
21/22
29/26
41/30
52/38
79/41
107/49
148/57
197/68
233/70

[SeekAndFind]

HERE’s THE DATA FOR THE SECOND HARDEST HIT COUNTRY — ITALY:

Italy is less encouraging than China would be quite the understatement. Italy places with 17,660 cases, 1,268 deaths and 1,439 recoveries. Italy has the highest mortality rate (in the top 20) at 7.18% and more than half its cases (10,285) were reported in the past 5 days (very bad). And of all nations with populations exceeding 500,000, Italy ranks #1 in infected rate at 0.029209 % (that’s 1 in every 3,424 people).

But it’s the past 15 days which concern me the most. 11-15 days ago, there were 1852 new cases. 6-10 days ago, 4873. And the 10,285 in the past 5 days represents 58% of the nation’s cases. Hmmmmm.

Italian fatalities in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 63, 286 and 902. In the latest data, they reported 252 Covid-19-related deaths.

Italian recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 440,440, and 817. The latest data reported 394 Covid-19 recoveries.

[SeekAndFind]

HERE’s THE DATA FOR THE SECOND HARDEST HIT COUNTRY — ITALY:

Italy is less encouraging than China would be quite the understatement. Italy places with 17,660 cases, 1,268 deaths and 1,439 recoveries. Italy has the highest mortality rate (in the top 20) at 7.18% and more than half its cases (10,285) were reported in the past 5 days (very bad). And of all nations with populations exceeding 500,000, Italy ranks #1 in infected rate at 0.029209 % (that’s 1 in every 3,424 people).

But it’s the past 15 days which concern me the most. 11-15 days ago, there were 1852 new cases. 6-10 days ago, 4873. And the 10,285 in the past 5 days represents 58% of the nation’s cases. Hmmmmm.

Italian fatalities in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 63, 286 and 902. In the latest data, they reported 252 Covid-19-related deaths.

Italian recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 440,440, and 817. The latest data reported 394 Covid-19 recoveries.

[jeffc]

Anyone know where we can see a side-by-side comparison of COVID-19 and the current flu? You know, infection rate, deaths per capita, etc?

[SeekAndFind]

FAVORABLE TRENDS IN ONE OF THE TOP THREE HARDEST HIT COUNTRIES -— SOUTH KOREA:

S Korea’s (#4) infection rate (0.015772 %) is similar to Iran’s. But check out the declining cases, flat fatalities, and rising recoveries over the past 15 days, while Spain (#5), France (#6) and Germany (#7) cases and fatalities have exploded in that time, although recoveries show a favorable trend.

[SeekAndFind]

HERE IN THE USA, WE’RE JUST GETTING STARTED:

Here at home (#8), as of 3/14/2020 datasets, there are only 2,174 confirmed cases in the USA. That’s a 0.000007 % rate (1 in 152,255). And, not to minimize these passings, but for all the hype — There’ve been only 47 deaths attributed to the virus (mortality = 2.16 %) in America ever.

But US cases in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 65, 429 and 1620. In the latest data, they reported 511 new Covid-19 cases. And almost 75% of cases were reported in the past 5 days. Definitely on a steep rise.

And US fatalities reported in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 9, 12 and 26. In the latest data, they reported 6 Covid-19 deaths.

Pretty similar to Spain, France and Germany.

Except that US recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 0, 0, and 5. In the latest data, there were NO Covid-19 recoveries.

[goodnesswins]

You can’t...flu is not tracked...I think it’s estimated after the fact

[Drango]

Am I the only one that can’t read his graphics?

[jeffc]

Interesting...

[Steely Tom]

Interesting story, a mix of good news and bad news.

Here's how to look at it, if you want to be cool:

All the bad news is due to the failings of Trump.

All the good news is due to the brilliance of Obama.

[DarthVader]

It looks like there have been decontamination efforts underway too. Helps alot in the suppression of the spread.

[Parley Baer]

The way I see it is that most of the reported cases reported here in the USA have been deaths and severe cases. Now that testing is expanding more cases will surely be reported even the mild ones that have not been previously reported on. So naturally there will be more reported cases with the increase in testing.

[reed13k]

Does anyone have any direct contact friends, relatives, or acquaintances that have actually contracted the virus?

I mean personal knowledge and not stuff from the “news” or a government.

I do not know of anyone in my circle, but curious to see if any Freepers have come into contact through their personal relations.

[sheehan]

average age of dead in Italy: 81

[SoConPubbie]

The way I see it is that most of the reported cases reported here in the USA have been deaths and severe cases. Now that testing is expanding more cases will surely be reported even the mild ones that have not been previously reported on. So naturally there will be more reported cases with the increase in testing.

With more testing here in the US the mortality rate is going to drop to the floor.

Deaths can't be hidden. The majority of infections, up to know, have been invisible with a lack of tests.

[BushCountry]

You take the early WA cases out of the equation and the mortality rate in the US is currently at .58%. South Korea which had a lot initial deaths (before any known treatment methods) is holding steady at .91%

There are over 90 pharmaceutical companies working on a cure and vaccine, several are showing great progress (not factored into the death rate), Favilavir, Remdesivir, Actemra, REGN3048-3051, HIV Drugs, Chloroquine, blood transfusions from survivors, etc.

The mortality rate will continue to decline.

[Spruce]

One of the main issues that give me concern is that our medical experts really do not have a full understanding of what this virus may be doing to people’s DNA.

[CaptainK]

I think I had it, would have got tested, but no test available to me.

[38special]

I was thinking the same thing. I know no one.