Italy/USA reported deaths days 1-16
1/1
2/6
3/9
7/11
11/12
12/15
17/19
21/22
29/26
41/30
52/38
79/41
107/49
148/57
197/68
233/70
HERE’s THE DATA FOR THE SECOND HARDEST HIT COUNTRY — ITALY:
Italy is less encouraging than China would be quite the understatement. Italy places with 17,660 cases, 1,268 deaths and 1,439 recoveries. Italy has the highest mortality rate (in the top 20) at 7.18% and more than half its cases (10,285) were reported in the past 5 days (very bad). And of all nations with populations exceeding 500,000, Italy ranks #1 in infected rate at 0.029209 % (that’s 1 in every 3,424 people).
But it’s the past 15 days which concern me the most. 11-15 days ago, there were 1852 new cases. 6-10 days ago, 4873. And the 10,285 in the past 5 days represents 58% of the nation’s cases. Hmmmmm.
Italian fatalities in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 63, 286 and 902. In the latest data, they reported 252 Covid-19-related deaths.
Italian recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 440,440, and 817. The latest data reported 394 Covid-19 recoveries.
FAVORABLE TRENDS IN ONE OF THE TOP THREE HARDEST HIT COUNTRIES -— SOUTH KOREA:
S Korea’s (#4) infection rate (0.015772 %) is similar to Iran’s. But check out the declining cases, flat fatalities, and rising recoveries over the past 15 days, while Spain (#5), France (#6) and Germany (#7) cases and fatalities have exploded in that time, although recoveries show a favorable trend.
HERE IN THE USA, WE’RE JUST GETTING STARTED:
Here at home (#8), as of 3/14/2020 datasets, there are only 2,174 confirmed cases in the USA. That’s a 0.000007 % rate (1 in 152,255). And, not to minimize these passings, but for all the hype — There’ve been only 47 deaths attributed to the virus (mortality = 2.16 %) in America ever.
But US cases in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 65, 429 and 1620. In the latest data, they reported 511 new Covid-19 cases. And almost 75% of cases were reported in the past 5 days. Definitely on a steep rise.
And US fatalities reported in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 9, 12 and 26. In the latest data, they reported 6 Covid-19 deaths.
Pretty similar to Spain, France and Germany.
Except that US recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 0, 0, and 5. In the latest data, there were NO Covid-19 recoveries.
The way I see it is that most of the reported cases reported here in the USA have been deaths and severe cases. Now that testing is expanding more cases will surely be reported even the mild ones that have not been previously reported on. So naturally there will be more reported cases with the increase in testing.
That’s a good trend.
People are making a big mistake comparing the US situation to Italy - Italian medicine isn’t even close to that of the US, and as far as absolute numbers, the US population is about 6.5 times larger.
Looks like day 10 is when the Italian hospital system started to sink.
if these rates hold a second week out, cases will be 170,000 with 875 deaths. A third week would be 1,156,000 cases with 3,150 deaths.
With just 6 more weeks from today at these rates EVERYONE in the US would be infected with 147,000 deaths. At a certsin point as hospitals are overloaded the death rate would climb. A million deaths would not be an unreasonable assumption. Obviously not everyone could get infected, but this shows how quickly this thing could get out of hand. In 6 more weeks everyone gets it!