The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for CLOSED CASES (based on official published numbers) for various locations are listed below:
China - 4.3% (obviously bogus)
Italy - 44.0% (Overwhelmed)
Spain - 64.2% (Overwhelmed??)
United States - 65.7% (Low sample size)
Germany - 26.4% (Low sample size)
Iran - 16.9%
France - 22.1%
S. Korea - 3.8%
Switzerland - 81%
UK - 73.5%
For those who are comparing this to the published mortality rates, understand that the Mortality Rate and the Case Fatality Rate are not the same thing, even though their names might give the impression that they are. The numbers I've posted are calculated as deaths/closed cases, where a closed case is one where the patient either died or recovered. It does not include those who are still sick or who have the disease and remain undiagnosed. Thus, it answers a different question than statistics (like the mortality rate) that include those people. It answers the question If I am diagnosed with this disease, how likely am I to die from it?
CFR is also frequently calculated over a period of time, which is appropriate for diseases such as cancer. For example, it could be calculated to answer the question If I am diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, how likely am I to die within the next year?
So it is perfectly legitimate to calculate the statistic as I have. You just have to know what cases are included in the denominator to begin to understand the question that the number is answering.
Case Fatality Rates are used as one indication among several of the severity of an illness. A disease with a low CFR that is widely prevalent or contagious will not kill many people. On the other hand, a highly contagious disease with a high CFR can end up killing many, many people. And of course, the worst case scenario is a disease that is both highly contagious and has a high CFR. It is arguable, at least (and in my personal opinion, already demonstrated) that this is that case with COVID-19, or Coronavirus.
There are many factors that can influence a CFR. Here's a list of just some of them:
I find it interesting to note that the only places with a CFR in the single digits (as I have calculated it) are in Asia. I don't know what that means. It could be simply bad data reporting. Or it could be a genetic factor.
My understanding is that it is killing 1 to 6 percent of the confirmed cases, not the high percentages you give.
I don’t know how they are getting the closed case stat. Seems they aren’t closing the case or including it in that stat for most if the people who don’t die.
Have seen an article on line that the real Wuhan rate was over 20 percent.
Uh...where are you getting your information?
Just for the record, the CFR is ALWAYS calculated using ONLY closed cases, like you have done.
There are several flubros out there that are adamant in denying that that is the case, ignoring evidence and logic contrary to their position (you know, like AGW alarmists do).
So I asked a contact, a doctor that is somewhere in the mid-levels dealing with this (not on the front lines, not one of the guys you see on TV) and he confirmed, instantaneously when I asked, that CFR only includes resolved cases. This is from a professional in the field who is not a scrub or a gumby.
That may not seem like a big deal, since the instantaneous CFR doesn’t really mean much in the long run, but the FReepers in question will no doubt continue to misrepresent the stats to advance their flubro narrative.
I would suggest that the Iranian numbers are also bogus. And Spain is indeed on the verge of being overwhelmed if they don’t reallocate resources properly. France not far behind. We have our own problems in NY (supposedly getting better, though) and LA. We need to allocate resources there as well (LA).