Posted on 03/22/2020 6:02:52 PM PDT by gas_dr
in order to practice population health and epidemiology, you must have an endpoint to stake a result on. Death is a pretty obvious endpoint. As previously stated in other threads, the death rate is high early on, but as testing, (and particularly if serological conversion) testing becomes available, then we can achieve a true N. In any population the deaths will occur quickly and upfront. I note that we are very reticent to declare someone reeolsvied thus far in this country which is skewing some of the death rate. My educated guess? 0.4% or less with (+) exams based on todays methodology. My really guess if serological surveillance is undertaken? <0.1%
If it is correct, then people who died from other illnesses are not being included in COVID-19 statistics, and the situations described in the article might indicate either another respiratory illness in the area, or undetected COVID-19 deaths.
That was supposed to read BUT I admire you for taking a stand. I have typed way too much tonight. Int is sad that the B is next to the N on my keyboard, I meant nothing offensive, rather, my admiration. I appreciate someone who looks at data.
Well, I’m wondering if the death rate is more informative about the future than the number of cases, which is so noisy.
Cumulative totals for King County WA, where it hit first:
March 09 => cases: 116; deaths: 20
March 10 => cases: 190; deaths: 22
March 11 => cases: n.a.; deaths: n.a.
March 12 => cases: 270; deaths: 27
March 13 => cases: 328; deaths: 32
March 14 => cases: 388; deaths: 35
March 15 => cases: 420; deaths: 37
March 16 => cases: 488; deaths: 43
March 17 => cases: 518; deaths: 46
March 18 => cases: 562; deaths: 56
March 19 => cases: 693; deaths: 60
March 20 => cases: 793; deaths: 67
March 21 => cases: 934; deaths: 74
March 22 => cases: 1,040; deaths: 75
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020.aspx
Looks like they’re flattening. Good news in those numbers or just more noise?
Appreciate your posts as well.
Maybe when this is all over, you can write a book like LS did about his analysis of the 2016 election
It looks like trhecurve is flattening. Not noise.
Factor increases: 1.23 - 1.14 - 1.17 - 1.11
It seems there is statistical deceleration which goes with curve flattening.
I am just a guy looking at the data based on my training, I am sure no one would want to read a book by me.
flattening a day later than say S. Korea, but much earlier than Italy?
Fingers crossed, but yes.
If correct, I predicted March 22 I will either be a genius or an idiot. There are those on both sides routine for each possibility!
The common seasonal flu killed 80,000 in the US in the winter of 2017-2018.
The US Covid-19 total continues to be below 450, and was below 25 per day just 4 days ago (since MAR 14... 8, 11, 18, 23, 41, 57, 49, 46). No nation has had an increase in the number of deaths continue for more than China's 19 days. Most nations are closer to 12-16 days of a rising curve. We are already halfway there. To reach 20,000, it would take an increase of 20+% per day for ANOTHER 24 days. (China mostly had a 10% daily increase. See below). No nation has seen an increase that large for that long that would be required to hit your prediction. We will not have the worst totals.
(China's daily count, starting JAN 25: 15, 24, 26, 26, 38, 43, 46, 45, 57, 64, 65, 73, 73, 86, 89, 97, 108, 97, and 146 on FEB 12... and then in decline ever since.)
Thank you. A sane voice in an insane world. Get some rest. We need you.
Like everyone else, I appreciate your research, candor about your opinions, and your level headed stats nevertheless. Good work.
As to your tagline... His name was Mr. Benjamin Cooper, instructor in AP English at the Kent School. Every Time I opined something in Senior English class, he looked at me, and in his droll, British accent said: You again, sir, have taken a firm grasp of the obvious. An insult then. but according to your tagline, now a sign if intelligence. My how times have changed.
I don’t know where worldometer gets their data but it does not match the CDC or Johns Hopkins data, and I suspect they are doing some data smoothing and trend projection between updates.
Thank you for your analysis and reasoning. I love President Trump but the biased media has turned his press conferences into madness for the average Joe/Jane, me included.
Appreciate your commentary, however I have a list of multiple members of the forum who rather decidedly do not appreciate my work and imply that I am merely — what is the clever name — a flu bro?
Reference Bkmk - thank you.
CHINA: No new cases
SOUTH KOREA: Daily new cases:
ITALY: New infections
You start of your list by referring to new cases and then change the terminology to new infections.
An important distinction to be made here is that this is reporting of new cases, not the start of new infections. Each case actually would have started from contact with another anywhere from 1 to 10 or more days before.
So recovery for any specific case from “case report date” to recovered is going to be less than the actual term of the illness in a person.
In the clinical world in which beside medicine is practiced, they are used interchangeably. This is a distinction without difference at bedside which is where I practice.
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