Posted on 03/22/2020 6:02:52 PM PDT by gas_dr
Good Evening all: Here is the 72 hour update (Day +5 from original post) on the data presented below. The data has been fast changing and as for all data sets there is some good news, some bad news, and some interesting news. I am adding the UK to the analysis. I will post the incremental 48 hour data points under each country. In terms of the data, the Worldodometer uses 2400 GMT to measure the 24 hour period, so I am convinced this is standardized appropriately. From the High level view, Italy is going showing reduced new cases today for the first time in days, Germany and France appear to be on course with the predicted, the UK seems ahead of the curve. China reported no new cases (again, take with a grain of salt). Iran is passed its peak (again, take with a grain of salt based on the country). As for our beloved United States,
Additional advanced analysis; A growth rate under 10% suggests non-exponential growth, and over 10% places exponential growth factor.I will present to you growth rates as well in this update.
I have spent the last several days like most Americans somewhat baffled, perplexed and even a little nervous at the rapidly unfolding events as to CoVID-19. The community seems to have been divided into two groups, those who are advocating that there is nothing more than the common flu here and that there is vast overreaction, and those that advocate that this is a serious illness that for the safety of all requires drastic measures in order to prevent mass death and tragedy. If one looks closely, it is possible to find everything from death rates calculated at 0.1% - 14% and beyond.
Fair warning, I tend to fall in the previous camp and think that this is likely an overblown situation that appears to be gathering inertia, and I have gotten into several heated and admittedly emotional arguments about this current situation. For full disclosure, I am a critical care physician practicing in the United States, and the fear of the unknown probably drives to a small degree my emotion. So this evening, I have decided to put emotion aside, and truly conduct a retrospective analysis of the data that is present in a multivariant system and see where the data lead us.
I have discovered something interesting, and will simply present the data without commentary. I have analyzed from the worldometer website six countries: China, Italy, United States, South Korea, Spain, and France. I have been curious as to the timelines and increase in daily cases in countries that appear to have rampant disease, and countries that have flattened the curve.
Methodology: Utilizing a base case rate of 100 infections, I standardized the time to 6340 infections, which happens to be the current report of United States infections updated at 1800 EDT. Datasouce: Worldometers.info
There are several new items to consider. I think they are good signs.
VP Pence this evening stated that there have been 250,000 tests. The only people being tested are SYMPTOMATIC PEOPLE. This means that only 10% of people with concerning symptoms have SARS-CoVID-(2).
The New York Death rate with the highest numbers of tests is 0.6%, ranging between 0.4% and 0.7% at any given instant point in time. Much less than forecast, and trending with South Korea
We are on day 7 of 15 days of the presential "15 days". Per the press conference tonight, there is going to be announcements and changes in regulation that will "allow exposed people back to work with masks". This ti me hints that the restrictions on the federal level may be easing
There are still a cross section of Americans, including those with differing opinions on this site that are invested in the doomsday scenario. I will present the data and allow all to draw conclusions, but what I can say is with few exceptions that I will elucidate, the original model that I published 5 days ago seems to be holding.
Please remember that I forecast this weekend would be very bumpy with a substantial increase in numbers, which has occurred, but with the better diagnosis, we are seeing a true picture of this disease emerge and it is NOT clearly different than multiple other pandemics
There are frankly irresponsible statements from Governors, particularly Governor Newsome in CA. "56% of California residents will be infected by the end of the week". If that is true, then of the 39.56M people residing in California, there will be 20M infections. However, worldwide there are 340,000 infections. This would clearly mean that by weeks end (to keep in perspective_ California would have 15x the number of cases worldwide.
There are two substantial pieces of literature reported recently that the Italian numbers appear skewed. The statement from epidemiologists is that in Italy, any death has been recorded in the last several weeks as Corona Virus. In fact, the literature is now reporting that it is likely in up to 75% of cases that "premorbid conditions may have been the causes of death".
Finally, before I present the data, one thing that seems to be still propagating through the discourse is the incubation period. It is now very solid data driven literature on the entire cohort that the Mean Time of Incubation to symptoms is five (5) days, with the median time 5.1 days. There is modal data concurring that 5 days is the measurement of central tendency. The range is 3 - 7 days accounting for 98% of all cases. Because the lower tail is days 1 - 3, this means that 99% of patients exhibit symptoms in seven (7) days.
And now (as per Paul Harvey) the rest of the story. Data will be reported as new infections over last five days Growth factor if Country is demonstrating increasing cases
CHINA: No new cases in Wuhan or Hubei provinces. Daily New Cases: 34 - 39 - 41 - 46. If these numbers are accurate it can be considered that this event is over in China, and lasted exactly two months (Jan 22 - March 22)
SOUTH KOREA: Daily new cases: 93 - 1352 - 87 - 147 - 98 This, too, appears to be a completed event. There was some concern over the two days with >100 new cases, however at this low level, this is probably noise in the clean up of the event. The infection point was either March 2, or March 3 Making time to inflection point +17 days from commencement of data gathering and event ending +19 days from inflection. Total time 36 days
ITALY: New infections 4207 - 5322 - 5986 - 6557 - 5560 Growth factor: 1.19 - 1.26 - 1.12 - 1.09 - 0.84 Despite the reporting of raw numbers that look scary, when standardized against the growth factor we find 4 days of decrease in new cases from a factored perspective. with the last three days being linear instead of exponential growth (Factor 1.0 - 1.10 is linear, >1.10 is exponential, (1.0 demonstrate overall decrease I number of new cases) Additionally - there is now two separate pieces in the literature suggesting that the death rate is OVERESTIMATED in Italy as an death in the last three weeks has listed CoVid as the cause. The current possible death rate is between 25 - 40% reported. If this is correct then the death rate is halved. I will follow up on this story. Take home message: Italy appears to be absolute worst case scenario in the world. Italian Health ministers are stating this week should see a significant decrease in the amount of new cases. Erego, my assumption is yesterday was inflection point. (Tc = 15 days). If this holds, infection was at day +15. This would be the longest time to inflection of 30 days.
USA: New Infections: 2848 - 4530 - 5594 - 4824* - 8576* Growth Factor 1.62 - 1.59 - 1.23 - 0.86 - 1.77 * The data on Worldometer has been UNSTABLE for the US. I take screen shots immediately before and after 2400 GMT. Last night, The number of new infections dropped from 3700 in NYC to 1974. It would be extremely rare in a well established curve to see a glitch like this followed by an immediate spike. If we assume that the 1726 cases were for yesterday, and apply them to Saturday, adjusting Sunday rates as appropriate we find: *5594 - 6550 - 6847 Growth Factor: 1.17 - 1.04 This would make the five day trend: 1.62 - 1.59 - 1.23 - 1.17 - 1.04 This would be more in line with a well established curve. We will determine tomorrow if this is correct. All outlier tests statistically point to yesterday being anomalous data. The NYC death rate either way is holding steady at 0.68% - 0.74%. Significantly less than 1%. Finally, NYC testing is likely unsaturated meaning that we have more tests than tests needed
SPAIN: New Infections: 2943 - 3308 - 3494 - 3925 - 3107 Growth Factor: 1.56 - 1.12 - 1.05 - 1.12 - 0.79 The last five days demonstrate significant slowing in the overall infection rate in Spain. Interestingly today factor <1.0 in this country as well. Should this trend hold, today is inflection point day which is time constant +8.
FRANCE: New Infections: 1404 - 1861 - 1617 - 1847 - 1559 Time Factor: 1.27 - 1.32 - 0.86 - 1.14 - 0.84 It appears that the infection rates in France have dropped dramatically in the last 3 days. Hopefully the trend is the friend in this situation as well
UK: New Infections: 676 - 643 - 714 - 1035 - 665 Growth Factor: 1.66 - 0.95 - 1.11 - 1.44 - 0.64 This feels a little more like noise than anything else. If these numbers hold, there is likely containment UK has NOT reached 6000 cases, so they either have contained, or are still a couple days PRIOR to rapid acceleration
Iran: New Infections: 1192 - 1046 - 1237 - 966 - 1028 Growth Factor: 1.01 - 0.87 - 1.18 - 0.78 - 1.06 In my judgment Iranian numbers are unreliable. I just dont think they have their act together to measure and given the political bent to show the infidels are more prone to this disease than the mighty Iranians, well, hell, I dont know what to say. If the data is anywhere near reliable, then the growth curve is flattened.
FINALY ANALYSIS The six countries that have the greatest number of cases are all demonstrating deceleration in the amount of new cases, and in several instances are also showing less cases day over day which means that the inflection point has been passed. If this data continues to persist, than worldwide, we can presume that we have passed the overall inflection point. From time of inflection to end of disease in population is 2.5 - 4 weeks
Recall that we have a viable treatment demonstrated in three countries. This would imply that we may see world wide a rapid decrease in duration of symptoms and critical illness and increasing survivability.
There was a hint in the press conference tonight from President Trump made by VP Pence that there may be relaxed restrictions to allow people to get back to work.
To be sure, there are going to be Fearpers, FINO, and much fear mongering. But this is where the data take us tonight.
Finally 5 day Growth Factor Worldwide: 1.22 - 1.31 - 1.27 - 1.17 - 0.96 - 1.05 f we assume that the American numbers inaccurately assign 1700 cases to today instead of yesterday the revised trend is 1.22 - 1.31 - 1.27 - 1.17 - 1.04 - 0.98 In either event there is deceleration to linear expansion, or perhaps the start of contraction worldwide. In a multivariable system, this is confirmed by multiple inputs instead of a single input.
Stay Safe Stay Sane Look forward to commentary
I have reposted because the original post disappeared.
Moderator took it down for “no link.”
However, I thank you for your original research and contribution.
Ahhh, I probably didn’t put the studs in correctly, so I tried to fix it. If I need to do anything else, let me know.
Fascinating. It seems we really can’t count on anyone’s numbers except South Korea. Thanks for posting.
bookmark
Thank you so much!
Michigan cases climbing. More testing now has an effect on counts.
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now
Interesting stats. Thanks for posting.
Maybe I'm missing something obvious or misinterpreting the summary (or it's what I suggest below)
If the top six countries are near or at or past peak (maybe that's not what you're saying,) then what would you say accounts for the Johns Hopkins non-China curve still looking exponential? Would you say 'because other countries that are newly contributing or still in exponential phase are dominating the curve right now?'
(I realize I could go do that math but I'm guessing you have an answer to that since you've got individual country day by day growth stats at hand.)
Certainly non-mainland-China-i.e.-rest-of-the-world looks like the growth rate is still accelerating.
Way to go keep it up. Also thanks for being up front of you thoughts but being as objective as you know how.
Based on this, and the deaths today (120), and a simple mathematical progression, I expect we will surpass the average annual fatality numbers for the common flu by the first or second week of April for Covid-19. In other words, I expect 20,000 people in the US to die of Covid-19 by the middle of April, equaling the average number killed for a whole year by the common flu.
Thank you for all the info you are sharing here on FR. My son is an intern at a NY hospital, so I have a very personal interest in all things COVID-19.
The U.K. Figures are correct according to the radio. (4000)
We haven’t even taken the same level of precautions as the rest of Europe or parts of the US, it will really kick off in the next week if it is going to.
I suspect we may be seeing the successful application of community mitigation procedures and medication based treatments to reduce the death rates.
Lets hope we see continued reduction in the rate of new cases, that would be a very good trend to have. But I'll settle for a continued reduction of the growth rate of the rate...
The numbers are unstable, I take the numbers at 2400 GMT to standardize. I expect revisions tomorrow. I believe that this will not approach the death rate of H1N1, but we will see I suppose. I stand by my data and judgment at this time
Many thanks for your analysis !!
Ok, thanks. I think unless we impede the rate, we are looking at 20,000 deaths by mid-April in the USA. I stand by that prediction. I hope I am wrong.
This is probably a dumb question, but why are they not calling it WARS (Wuhan Acute Respiratory Syndrome) or CARS (Chinese Acute Respiratory Syndrome)? Seems like a lot of these types of illnesses are named after the location where they originated. Is it because that would not be PC?
But, especially in the US, the number of cases is very noisy, because of the lack of testing, Do you have any analysis based on number of deaths?
I think given new treatment options and overall location on time line we will come up short of that. Nut I admire you for taking a stand, I hope you are wrong, but lets see...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.