Based on this, and the deaths today (120), and a simple mathematical progression, I expect we will surpass the average annual fatality numbers for the common flu by the first or second week of April for Covid-19. In other words, I expect 20,000 people in the US to die of Covid-19 by the middle of April, equaling the average number killed for a whole year by the common flu.
The numbers are unstable, I take the numbers at 2400 GMT to standardize. I expect revisions tomorrow. I believe that this will not approach the death rate of H1N1, but we will see I suppose. I stand by my data and judgment at this time
The common seasonal flu killed 80,000 in the US in the winter of 2017-2018.
The US Covid-19 total continues to be below 450, and was below 25 per day just 4 days ago (since MAR 14... 8, 11, 18, 23, 41, 57, 49, 46). No nation has had an increase in the number of deaths continue for more than China's 19 days. Most nations are closer to 12-16 days of a rising curve. We are already halfway there. To reach 20,000, it would take an increase of 20+% per day for ANOTHER 24 days. (China mostly had a 10% daily increase. See below). No nation has seen an increase that large for that long that would be required to hit your prediction. We will not have the worst totals.
(China's daily count, starting JAN 25: 15, 24, 26, 26, 38, 43, 46, 45, 57, 64, 65, 73, 73, 86, 89, 97, 108, 97, and 146 on FEB 12... and then in decline ever since.)