Posted on 03/27/2020 9:27:41 AM PDT by Mariner
Wise words...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUKTTt9U0AEiOxi?format=jpg&name=small
(Mildly). I be thinking a piecewise fit might be a good idea.
Exponential, then fit to parabolic.
That being said — since the disease is NOT randomly distributed across the country, it might be a thought to do the piecewise fit separately for each of (say) a dozen blue city hotspots and go from there; realizing that day 0 for one city might lag day 0 from another.
And mindful that social distancing being unevenly practiced — hardly at all at first, and clamping down as people get alarmed — might affect the classic Gaussian-over-time parabolic shape.
Mass casualties on the recipient side followed by an all-out nuclear strike.
(”Hey Vlad, this is Donald Trump. Wanna nuke China off the face of the Earth with me?”)
(Sigh.) You are pig-fornicatingly stupid then.
If this is the same as H1N1, then that sameness should hold all over the world.
If Italy's deaths now are way more, than they were from H1N1, it can't be the same thing.
Plenty of younger crew. If my memories serve me from my days on cruise ships, there are some middle age range passengers, young couples, some children, even, and a cohort of younger crew to complement the older folks.
I’m not saying it is a perfect representative population, but it isn’t as distorted as you might think.
Yeah, I wasn’t trying to say one method was better than another. All I was trying to say was no matter how you fit data, unless the behavior is completely predictable, extrapolating predictions is not reliable. Unfortunately sometimes the message gets lost in egos.
LOL. I am going to steal that one for future use. 😝
You got that right brother. FR is famous for its armchair generals when a military action is going down. Seems we also have some armchair medical doctors/surgeon generals in our midst as well.
New York City reports 1,607 new cases and 155 new deaths in evening update,
There are over 500 dead thus far today in the USA. Hydroxychloroquine has been rejected as the treatment of choice by most hospitals. Mist are dying needlessly. Instead they want more respirators. Why? Because they are not going to use hydroxychloroquine.
final USA tollfor 3-28
not a good day
19,225 new cases
515 new deaths
UPDATE: Trump says a quarantine of the New York City area “will not be necessary,” CDC will issue a travel advisory instead
News from the Great Northwest (aka Minnesota)...
911 Call Centers are being overwhelmed by callers asking about Governor Walz’s stay at home plan. It’s bad enough they’re trying to get the word out to NOT call 911 if you have a question about this order.
Look, I’m not Mensa material - but it stands to reason (that is for anyone out there with a lick of intelligence or common sense) that general questions about the stay at home order ARE NOT an emergency.
What the hell is it with people these days? Are some of these callers the same who think that aquarium cleaner will protect them from CV or are hoarding 140 rolls of toilet paper?
Without any infection control measures, that is exactly what will happen.
While we are all getting cabin fever from not going out, we just need to keep in mind the reason for the social distancing measures. To keep Covid-19 from infecting every possible person.
So far these measures have proven completely ineffective!
I don’t have any data one way or the other, and certainly don’t have enough data to model how the growth would look without any infection controls vs. with controls. All I can do is look at the current trajectory.
Correct. And currently that growth is exponential.
So we can say that current methods to ‘slow the growth’ have been completely ineffective.
When the growth starts to slow and can best be modeled by a powerlaw model, then either population constraints have come into play or the efforts to slow the growth are starting to work.
Again, I do not have enough data to compare the current growth to the worst case scenario predictions. However, I’ll say that my back of the envelope calculations show that the growth is right around where I would expect it to be, assuming an R naught value of 2.5 and a one week period when any particular person is contagious. After that week, they would be symptomatic and presumably quarantined so as not to infect others.
Once again, I have no idea what you are going on about. Is the spread of Covid-19 described by an exponential growth function? Yes. Does my graph show that? Yes. Do my data points fit a theoretical curve determined mathematically? Yes.
Beyond that, there is no need or use for high level calculus. Calculus just does not describe biological processes until you get down to the atomic/molecular level. And even then, most of our calculations don’t rely on calculus.
The beauty of the built in Excel functions is that I don’t have to make macros to do exactly the same thing. Which I have done, back in the distant past before I really understood Excel.
I really have no idea what your profession is, but it is painfully clear that it has nothing to do with the life sciences.
You claim I should listen to experts in other fields? My experience is working in multidisciplinary teams with epidemiologists, statisticians, physicians, veterinarians, masters of public health, microbiologists, etc. etc. I highly value the input of other experts WHEN IT IS RELEVANT. You have yet to contribute anything relevant.
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