Corona Virus Daily Thread #29

“So we can say that current methods to ‘slow the growth’ have been completely ineffective.”

No. We can say they have not been completely effective.

Blame NYC, Cuomo and de Blasio for that.

Now the entire Eastern Seaboard is contaminated and the largely effective containment and mitigation efforts are ruined.

You didn’t and can’t respond to a single point I made about the math you are using. I acknowledge the value of data collecting. But if you think you can extrapolate from it, which was ALL I ever cautioned, your just being stubborn. Please go do whatever you want. Let us all know when you have predicted the future.

I didn't respond to any point about my math because whatever you think I should be doing is not the practice in my field. Do you seriously think that a person who holds a PhD in a stem field does not know the pertinent mathematical functions for their field?

Here, since you have trouble with the concept, is a description of a bacterial growth curve. Mathematically, it is exactly the same as the spread of Covid-19. In fact, most biological functions behave in the same way, although some approach an asymptote rather than decay once the system runs out of resources. And, as I have already said several times, a polynomial accurately defines the curve to within a few thousandths before the curve reaches its second inflection point. And that is why I chose to use a polynomial curve fit (built into Excel) rather than the exponential (or logarithmic) equations.

You come across as an armchair quarterback.

Please go do whatever you want.

Of course I'm going to do "whatever" I want. Which is to use my knowledge and experience to analyze the pandemic.

Let us all know when you have predicted the future.

Let me know where I have "predicted" anything. All I did was graph the current growth of the pandemic, as I have done since Mar. 12. You're the one claiming that I'm predicting something. The only thing I can "predict" are likely trajectories, using established scientific principles.

[Right. And the early Chinese response is very simply explained by incompetence and CYA. Much like our CDC, I’m afraid.]

I don’t think it’s necessarily incompetence. Look at what the Italians are having to deal with. This is after they got a whiff of what was happening in China, although they couldn’t quite be sure if it was because of political ructions, China’s backwardness in medical care or cultural issues re disease transmission. The Chinese had no one else to look to, in terms of cues.

The big problem for Xi Jinping is however he handled it, the pandemic was a tar baby. However he performed, large numbers of Chinese were going to die. Each of his rivals in the Chinese state would look at it as an opportunity to mount a leadership challenge. Then there was the possibility of popular unrest, as has occurred during multiple pandemics in the past. So he settled on a multi-track information strategy - denials, arrests, bare-faced lies, self-congratulation and deflection. On the medical front, he chose quarantines, mass cremations, hoarding of PPE’s, the construction of temporary treatment facilities, the transfer of medical personnel and equipment to hot zones and a national shutdown.

By denying foreign personnel free access to China’s labs and medical facilities, he basically gave the outside world no warning about what was to come. To preserve his position as head honcho, he risked the lives of what may turn out to be millions of pandemic victims. That is the problem, not his personal competence or otherwise.

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