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U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Is Inflated
Real Clear Politics ^ | May 29, 2020 | Timothy Allen, John Lott

Posted on 05/29/2020 12:05:48 PM PDT by rogerantone1

The latest Centers for Disease Control data show that the COVID-19 fatality rate is 0.26% -- four times higher than the worst rate for the seasonal flu over the past decade. That is dramatically lower than the World Health Organization’s estimate of 3.4% and Dr. Anthony Fauci’s initial guess of about 2%.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: academicresearchers; coronavirus; covid; cprc; panda; seriousresearch; wackadoodle

1 posted on 05/29/2020 12:05:48 PM PDT by rogerantone1
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To: rogerantone1

NO DUH..there are NOT 100,000 deaths from this virus, they are counting gunshot victims, stroke victims, heart attack victims, as wu flu deaths


2 posted on 05/29/2020 12:07:03 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: rogerantone1

” four times higher than the worst rate for the seasonal flu over the past decade “

And which will be lower when we have therapies and possibly vaccines for it.

It’s just new. Now that so much research firepower is focused on it, it’ll be beaten down to the more well known Type A or B flu rates.


3 posted on 05/29/2020 12:08:32 PM PDT by Regulator
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To: rogerantone1

Pure bullshit.


4 posted on 05/29/2020 12:10:39 PM PDT by Kozak (DIVERSITY+PROXIMITY=CONFLICT)
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To: rogerantone1

“Dr. Anthony Fauci’s initial guess“

That little turd gets paid $374,000 per year to guess things. So far, on COVID, he’s not sporting a particularly high batting average with those guesses.


5 posted on 05/29/2020 12:11:11 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Prayers up for Rush Limbaugh...)
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To: rogerantone1

Trying to split the conservative vote by propagandizing is not a good idea. Go to work, but have some common sense. Germs do exist.


6 posted on 05/29/2020 12:14:22 PM PDT by familyop (Hell hath no fury like a scorned parrot.)
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To: rogerantone1

The fatality rate is lower in part because the country shut down. Whether you agree with the shutdown or not, you have to acknowledge that is going to reduce the number of people who get it and die from it.


7 posted on 05/29/2020 12:23:30 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: Wayne07

My understanding is that this year was also a bad influenza year. I saw an estimate of 40,000 to 60,000 flu deaths this year. If the shutdown did any good, those numbers really should be lower.

I think we trashed the economy for absolutely no benefit.


8 posted on 05/29/2020 12:25:53 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (If White Privilege is real, why did Elizabeth Warren lie about being an Indian?)
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To: familyop
Go to work, but have some common sense. Germs do exist.

And they always have, and always will. Yet for some reason, we were never forced to "shelter in place", wear masks, stay "6' apart", or do ANY of the other bulls**t being foisted on us over this virus. I wonder why...

Oh yeah, Orange Man Bad.

9 posted on 05/29/2020 12:26:35 PM PDT by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell)
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To: Wayne07
Whether you agree with the shutdown or not, you have to acknowledge that is going to reduce the number of people who get it and die from it.

Really? By all means, explain why. Given that 66% of those in NYC that tested positive were "locked down", I'm not sure you can make that case.

10 posted on 05/29/2020 12:28:47 PM PDT by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell)
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To: rogerantone1

I’d say by 50,000!!


11 posted on 05/29/2020 12:30:55 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: rogerantone1

You’re gonna find that once the thumb-suckers have swallowed the lies, they’ll fight tooth and nail not to give up those lies.

MPAI (Most People Are Idiots)

And idiots are cattle.

and herds of cattle are most very easily spooked toward destructive ends.


12 posted on 05/29/2020 12:31:51 PM PDT by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: familyop

Don’t confuse propagandizing with its opposite, unpropagandizing.


13 posted on 05/29/2020 12:45:33 PM PDT by reasonisfaith (What are the implications if the Resurrection of Christ is a true event in history?)
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To: Sicon

It is a virus, not magic. If you actually are locked down, you can’t get it. If you got it in NYC you either got it before lock down, or you weren’t really locked down and were exposed to it while out of lock down.


14 posted on 05/29/2020 12:48:31 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: Grimmy

I’m going to try to remember MPAI.

It’s true.


15 posted on 05/29/2020 1:21:04 PM PDT by wally_bert (Transmission tone, Selma.)
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To: Kozak

Partner, we agree. Fauci and Birx were totally accepting the death tolls from this virus to be astronomical.

We will never evah hear an apology from these two (2), because these 2 folks are blinded by the fact that they r DemonRats first and foremost and they r part of that DemonRat swamp that we currently have in D.C.

16 posted on 05/29/2020 1:35:10 PM PDT by TheConservativeTejano (God Bless Texas...)
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To: Wayne07
It is a virus, not magic. If you actually are locked down, you can’t get it. If you got it in NYC you either got it before lock down, or you weren’t really locked down and were exposed to it while out of lock down.

Which pretty strongly suggests that the lockdowns are pointless and ineffective.

17 posted on 05/29/2020 3:05:34 PM PDT by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell)
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To: rogerantone1

The CDC scenarios cite only one source for the mortality rate - see the very bottom of the page at the CDC website.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
Here is a link to the source
Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19: A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis. medRxiv.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050138v1.full.pdf
And this source says the mortality rate is 2%
Line 47 of the source-
“Pooled probability of COVID-19-related death was 0.02 (95% 45CI: 0.02, 0.03). “
Thus, the only source for the “scenarios”, which is based on a summary of dozens of articles, one of which summarizes the data on more than 58,000 Covid cases, states that the mortality rate is 2%.

Infection fatality rate estimate to be 1.3%

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00455?utm_campaign=covid19fasttrack&;
utm_medium=press&utm_content=basu&utm_source=mediaadvisory

“The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-fi
rst-thought

A comparison of daily deaths in Italy since January 2020 with those over the previous five years there indicates that the fatality rate in that country for those infected with the new coronavirus is at least 0.8%, far higher than that of the seasonal flu and higher than some recent estimates.
https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/04/24/study-challenges-reports-of-low-fatality-rate-for-covid-19/

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/26/c_139008212.htm
SAN FRANCISCO, April 25 (Xinhua) — Extrapolating from the Italian data, University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory data scientists estimated that the COVID-19 fatality rate in New York City can be no less than 0.5 percent, or one of every 200 people infected.


18 posted on 05/29/2020 6:36:48 PM PDT by brookwood (Obama said you could keep your plan - Sanders says higher taxes will improve the weather)
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To: Wayne07

You’re never truly isolated unless all your food, water, and Air is from inside. The logic of closing up everyone was faulty and pretty weak from the start.


19 posted on 05/29/2020 7:42:32 PM PDT by Morpheus2009
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To: rogerantone1

Ya think?


20 posted on 05/29/2020 9:33:10 PM PDT by TBP (Progressives lack compassion and tolerance. Their self-aggrandizement is all that matters.)
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