That’s a really bad example. That was almost 2 years before the election. We were in a deep recession at that point.
Um—last time I looked we had recession numbers. :-)
Exactly. The economy took off like a rocket in mid 1984.
Carter 59%
Reagan 36%
Reagan ended up crushing Carter in November 980
Reagan 44 states
Carter 6 states + DC.
You'll probably find the Pdf of the poll on the Harris site.
They had one in March of 1984 showing either Mondale or Gary Hart beating Reagan by eight to ten. It’s always the same.