Cotton, Paul and others are controlled for major events by McConnell. McConnell controls the Senate GOP campaign funds. If they value their senate club membership, they will bow to McConnell when he says so.
An everyday analogy is where McConnell lets them swing for the fences when no one is on base but benches them when the bases are loaded.
Hawley on the other hand is the real deal and will be asked to run for President at some point by forces outside McConnell. Hawley would be an excellent VP choice for Trump in 2024 if it gets to 2024.