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There are definitely reports of angry organized Russian groups derailing train cars carrying weapons and troops. A figure of 80 incidents was mentioned. Putin was proud of finally getting this 100 year project finished. It goes across the Kersh Peninsula which leads to Russia on the south side of the Sea of Azov. I did some research on the whole bridge project.

I have a negotiating proposal for getting Russia out of Crimea without a lot more fighting and destruction. Allow Russia to rent it’s current port facilities after all their warships, airplanes, military supplies, and soldiers are removed, and then permit use for commercial shipping. This would answer Russia’s desire for a warm water port and provide income to Ukraine. Also allow Russian tourists to cross the bridge with paying a modest toll. Currently there is none. Many Ukranians have left Crimea, and many Russians have moved in. Legal measures to correct ownership would be and important part of any settlement.

Of course Russia should leave Crimea and all other occupied locations in Ukraine. However, offering Putin some credit for bringing this project to completion might sooth his ego enough to allow civil negotiations. This is the longest bridge in Europe. It has 4 traffic lanes and 2 rail lines. It took more than a hundred years of off and on planning and negotiating to get it built. Prehaps Putin could be persuaded to negotiate in order to get public credit for doing one good big thing in his lifetime.

Just a thought. Other negotiating ideas needed too.

Ukraine ping

gleeaikin: [There are definitely reports of angry organized Russian groups derailing train cars carrying weapons and troops. A figure of 80 incidents was mentioned.]

It’s certainly a possibility. It’s also possible Putin will withdraw from Ukraine, as a goodwill gesture to his Slavic brethren, to resume hostilities at some later date in order to deal with his internal enemies now instead of frittering away the resources needed in Ukraine. He can always come back later, now that he knows his military machine isn’t what he thought it was. Once the EU gets back in bed with him as Frau Merkel wants, he’ll have plenty of time and money to rebuild his war machine with the knowledge gained from operations in Ukraine. And all he did was get rid of obviously inferior platforms, and gain a far better understanding of the requirements of 21st century warfare.

Segments of EU pols are clamoring to normalize ties with Russia. The moment he pulls out, those voices will gain strength. You might think I’m being too cynical. As Lily Tomlin once opined - no matter how cynical you get, it’s never enough to keep up.

I still think the chance of Ukraine regaining Crimea is pretty low, but I don't think they will be willing to negotiate until Russia is pushed back to the Feb 23 line or close to it. Putin is clearly trying the huff and puff into negotiations now. I have relatives in Europe and read the French, German and Polish papers every day (the last in translation). People are complaining about the high prices but no one is freezing or starving and are unlikely to do so. No mass layoffs yet, although some gas-dependent industries are clearly suffering like fertilizer production and glass making.

The only real credible military threat is if Putin reconstitutes a working army in Belarus and attacks Kyiv again to relieve pressure in the East and South. But I don't see how he can arm and train a large enough force. The Ukrainian army is now much better trained and equipped than it was, and if Putin tries that, I don't think they will hesitate to use artillery and rockets against Russian bases in Belarus. I also think Lukashenko is delicately trying to extricate himself from Putin's war.

I have a negotiating proposal for getting Russia out of Crimea without a lot more fighting and destruction. Allow Russia to rent ~~it’s~~ its current port facilities after all their warships, airplanes, military supplies, and soldiers are removed, and then permit use for commercial shipping. This would answer Russia’s desire for a warm water port and provide income to Ukraine.

What you are proposing is essentially the agreement that was already in place prior to 2014 - except that Russian warships also had free access.

No, sorry... Only solution is to remove Putin.

Regards,

> Of course Russia should leave Crimea and all other occupied locations in Ukraine. <

It is worth noting that Crimea was a part of Russia for 150+ years until Khrushchev simply gave it to Ukraine on a whim. That was in 1954.

Now, the occupied areas in Ukraine, that’s a different story. Russia does not belong there. But I see no way of making them leave the annexed eastern regions. Perhaps the best solution is to broker a deal where Russia pays a huge amount of money to buy the land they already occupy. Then the war ends.

However, if I were Ukrainian I would find that scenario to be very distasteful.