I am convinced this is true because I don’t think ANY of the pollsters, including Baris or Trafalgar, made an adjustment for those who already voted.
For ex, say you have a voter population of 500,000, but 200,000 vote early. You poll that and get one result. but in November you poll and it looks really good . . . because you have failed to account for the fact that you are polling a remnant of just over half-—but the ones voting the other way have already voted. It will be interesting to see if the pollsters come to this conclusion.
For ex, say you have a voter population of 500,000, but 200,000 vote early. You poll that and get one result. but in November you poll and it looks really good . . . because you have failed to account for the fact that you are polling a remnant of just over half-—but the ones voting the other way have already voted. It will be interesting to see if the pollsters come to this conclusion.
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You’re describing what happened in PA where a million early votes were in the barn before the debate.
Another adjacent scenario was 2020 when feds & MSM kept the lid on the laptop from hell
imo neither situation could show up in the polls