I’m not seeing this. I have a HS senior and due to test optional and test blind policies apps to “affordable” state flagships have doubled and acceptance rates are now below 50% everywhere. UCLA is down to 10%. It’s brutal.
California colleges are different than most states, there are too many kids and not enough seats, except at Merced. In other states, the non Flagships have falling enrollments. Michigan is a good example. UMichigan and Michigan State are selective but you can still get in to Central Michigan for around $20K, even out of state. Add Illinois and New Jersey which send more kids out of state due to their high tuition rates for their residents.
There are kids applying to the same 300 or so colleges that are driving down admission rates. Kids are applying to 15-20 colleges because those known colleges are becoming more difficult to get into, but they can still only attend one. Test optional allows kids who knew they couldn’t get in before now apply.
Then you have southern schools becoming more popular with kids in the Northeast because they’re cheaper than privates. Clemson, UofSC, UTennessee and Auburn have become more selective since Covid.
Finally, there are many lesser known schools that are struggling with enrollment. For the past decade 5-10 small private colleges have closed each year. I expect that number to grow over the next few years.